DAX 2021 Week 31 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on DAX. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bullish

• Last month ducked below the pre­vi­ous month’s low to then close as a near-Doji with long buy­ing wick. Sell­ing wick not mak­ing a HH. Some slow-down through a poten­tial base but need anoth­er month to con­firm or reject. 

Week­ly — Neutral

• W1 con­sol­i­da­tion pos­si­ble Phase 1 / 3 below W1-C‑S 15654.79 with reac­tion off W1-C‑D 15401.45

Dai­ly — Neutral

• V‑shaped cor­rec­tion back to W1 sup­ply before form­ing a Three Inside Down with some fol­low-through but then new D1 demand was formed giv­ing D1-C‑D 15547.73 after a sell­ing wick test­ed W1 Supply

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• MN closed as a pos­si­ble base (but need more infor­ma­tion) with a long buy­ing wick
• Pos­si­ble W1 Phase 1 / 3, equi­ties being long-biased a phase 1 reac­cu­mu­la­tion is slight­ly more favored although no break from W1 range yet.
• D1 Weak Three Inside Up formed some demand and price tried tak­ing it out but was unsuc­cess­ful for now

Addi­tion­al notes

• Aug 06, 20:30, USD, Non­farm Payrolls

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 15778.44
• W1-C‑S 15654.79

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15547.73
• W1-C‑D 15401.45
• D1-C‑D 15276.33

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Week­ly Focus Points
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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