21 Jun DAX 2021 Week 25 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on DAX. The levels that I will be looking at with a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bullish
- MN Bull Engulf giving MN-C‑D 13694 and price continued higher making an all-time high
- Price currently trading within last month’s body
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- W1 Bear Engulf giving W1-C‑S 15677.71 and price returning to W1-C‑D 15401.45
- Possible W1 Phase 1 / 3 (although equities have a fundamental upwards bias)
- Price trading above W1 VWAP in UT
Daily — Slightly Bearish
- D1 Consolidation and Break Down (possible Phase 4) giving D1-C‑S 15732.18 trading at D1 50MA although currently trading below
Sentiment summary — Slightly Bearish
- W1 showed a slowdown in price moving higher then closed as a Bear Engul with price currently trading within W1 Demand and still above VWAP.\
- Possible D1 Phase 4 with no arrival at D1 LKC in UT (yet)
- Although there is some sell-off in the market, equities being equities there is still an upward bias.
Additional notes
- June 21st
- ECB’s President Lagarde speech
- June 23rd
- ECB’s Schnabel speech
- ECB’s De Guindos speech
- EUR — Markit PMI Composite
- GBP — Markit Services PMI
- USD — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- USD — Fed’s Bowman speech
- USD — Markit Manufacturing PMI
- June 24th
- ECB’s President Lagarde speech
- EUR — European Council Meeting
- GBP — BoE Interest Rate Decision
- USD — Initial Jobless Claims
- EUR — ECB’s Schnabel speech
- June 25th
- EUR — European Council Meeting
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- D1-C‑S 15732.18
- W1-C‑S 15677.71
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 15401.45
- D1-C‑D 15127.39
- MN-C‑D 13694
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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