Daily Report Card 12032020

03 Dec Daily Report Card 12032020

#dai­lyre­port­card #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #day­trad­ing #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD #GOLD #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: Patience is key

P&L: FLAT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB formed a M30 Bull Engulf and trad­ed high­er tak­ing out LTF sup­ply. Closed as H1 Bull Engulf. An ear­ly entry would have been best due to near­by H4 C‑Sup and LTF sup­plies. A momen­tum based entry has a sub­op­ti­mal R/R even though it looks like a strong move. 
  • C: Closed mak­ing HHs
  • D: Closed mak­ing HHs but reac­tive off H4 C‑sup as a pin bar, still think­ing there is more upside here though due to the length of the uncon­firmed tail in D to the sin­gle prints in C. 
  • E: M15 RBR fol­lowed by an Inside Bar. M30 closed mak­ing HHs. 
  • F: CLosed as M30 Bear Engulf (sub­op­ti­mal SL place­ment + no 4+ TPO struc­ture although there is the near­by H4 C‑Sup and H1 closed as a near-Doji with longer sell­ing wick) 
  • G: M30 consolidation 
  • H: Made HHs exhaust­ing ADR

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB formed an Inside Bar retrac­ing slight­ly over 50%. M15 trad­ed low­er show­ing pos­si­ble weak­ness but closed mak­ing new demand through bull engulf. H1 closed as an Inside bar with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick.
  • C: Closed as M30 DBD extend­ing below IB hit­ting M30 VWAP in UT
  • D: Closed as an inside bar with longer buy­ing wick after react­ing off M30 VWAP in UT as failed auc­tion. Though due to a tight IB range and weak buy­ing wick and tail and weak M15 rever­sal pat­tern after H1 clos­ing as Three Inside Down I don’t think going long is the best play at the moment. 
  • E: Closed as anoth­er M30 DBD
  • F: M15 Bull Engulf and trad­ed into M30 BullE Engulf at VWAP in UT and failed auction.
  • G: fol­low-through on F mov­ing deep­er into IB
  • H: Closed deep­er into IB near­ing IB high and PA look­ing bull­ish to form a Neu­tral Day mak­ing my hypo play out 100%. I’ll check it out lat­er. Time to exercise.

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 – Swing Rever­sal (should actu­al­ly be trend continuation)
  • Last H4 can­dle closed as a pos­si­ble BASE, cur­rent­ly an Inside Bar. With price open­ing just above VAH (near­by H4/D1 C‑dems) we could see a move high­er if:
  • Pre­ferred: strong M30 rever­sal pat­tern to the slight move down pre-mar­ket. Sus­tained auc­tion. Tak­ing out LTF supply. 
  • 100% 
  • An ear­ly entry would have yield­ed a 2.8R

Hypos — Gold

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 – Return to Value
  • Price returns to VAH fol­lowed by rever­sal up and either a failed auc­tion with extend­ing high­er form­ing a Neu­tral Day or it hap­pens dur­ing IB
  • 90%
  • Price did extend down after which it formed a M30 Bull Engulf at VWAP in UT but there is still no fol­low-through to the move and it seems a bit unlike­ly as price is fair­ly slow. Doesn’t look like we will get a Neu­tral Day. Per­haps in over­lap noise. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• GBPNZD
  • I did well here although I missed an ear­ly entry due to most­ly being busy writ­ing the week­ly plan and prep for gold. Also, because this is the first day of get­ting into gold again I thought to take it easy. 
  • It was good of me to rec­og­nize that the best entry had gone by and I mon­i­tored for a poten­tial rever­sal near H4 C‑sup. Even though F closed as a Bear Engulf, due to wide and only 3 TPO struc­ture on pro­file I decid­ed this could actu­al­ly be grounds for a con­tin­u­a­tion. I have observed this time of after time and for a moment I thought to enter on the first sin­gle print of C take out. Will include all in my playbook. 
• GOLD
  • Should have per­haps giv­en more empha­sis on the extend­ed run up includ­ing HK mov­ing high­er. With the large imbal­ance at open a mean rever­sion could have been in the cards. Due to M30 VWAP in UT and H4 bull­ish PA) being in the way I expect­ed more of an upwards move. This could be a H4 pull­back to close as an Inside Bar. Which is still in the cards at the time of this writ­ing as we formed a M30 Bull Engulf at VWAP in UT with failed auction. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good. Even after I saw the move on FX tak­ing off with­out me. I did well to observe and not give in to FOMO. I am after all a Reformed Grasshopper 🙂

How well did I fol­low my process?

• I did well here

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. Had a light meal. 

What did I learn today?

• I learned that I can get back into the groove of things even though the mar­kets have been so qui­et late­ly. Today kind of brings a beam of light at the end of the tun­nel and my bor­ing days are over! 🙂 I’ve been wait­ing to prove to myself that I can do this and with only a few trades last month I still feel itchy to prove myself more. Hav­ing said that I feel I do real­ly well to NOT TRADE when there are no oppor­tu­ni­ties. And if there are, that for the most part I have valid rea­son­ing behind my reluc­tance (ie. new set­up, gain­ing expe­ri­ence, etc.) 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• You know… You hear or read about suc­cess­ful peo­ple stat­ing that they’d do the work they’re in even if it didn’t make any mon­ey… well that’s me baby! I love doing this and I didn’t even take a trade today… Now I just got­ta work on get­ting bet­ter at doing oth­er things when the mar­kets aren’t con­ducive for me to trade. I get so bored and one can only game so much 🙂 
  • I did add Gold to my trad­ed instru­ments today so let’s see how that goes
  • I start­ed play­ing online chess again
  • Plus I start­ed a book club. We’re doing ‘The Great­est Bluff’ by Maria Kon­niko­va (my suggestion)

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about tak­ing trades. Just focus on the Process. The rest will follow. 
• Process is all. Patience is key. Per­sis­tence brings it all together. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did real­ly well here

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 12032020

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 12032020

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