Daily Report Card 11162020

16 Nov Daily Report Card 11162020

#dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: 1st Open­ing Dri­ve Play

P&L: +0.9R

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade off M30/M15 for entries. M30, time-based, or look for exits after 2 hours (4 TPOs). Unless the entry is real­ly late.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Fair Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • Pos­si­ble H4 DBD com­ing from over­head D1/H4 C‑sups (W1 C‑dem too high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve plus test­ed mul­ti­ple times). No fol­low-through on H1 move high­er, con­sol­i­da­tion + break down. M30 trad­ing just below M30 VWAP.
    • Went short on open after M15 Bear Engulf and pull­back to M15 VWAP/C‑sup (fol­low­ing Hypo 2 narrative):
      • Short 1.9223 SL 1.92404 TP 1.92098
      • Took the trade off at 1R (effec­tive­ly 0.9) due to it being my first time putting on an ‘open­ing dri­ve play’ trade dur­ing A (even though M15 closed low­er). Price still trad­ing form­ing IB. Mul­ti-time­frame demand below. 
      • Will mon­i­tor after­math of trade
      • Just took out LTF demand and hit 2R
  • C: Extend­ed IB down. Sub­op­ti­mal SL place­ment and too much under­ly­ing demand to go in on a momen­tum play. Expect­ing a low/medium ini­tia­tive day.
    • More of a medi­um ini­tia­tive day. Seems to be some momen­tum behind the move. C closed mak­ing LLs into LTF demand hov­er­ing above H4 C‑Dem.
  • D: M15 con­sol­i­da­tion above H1 QLo, H4-C‑D 1.91432
    • My pre­vi­ous trade would have hit 3.8R if I had fol­lowed PA exit rules.
    • Closed as M30 doji with longer sell­ing wick, M15 weak Bear Engulf 
  • E: M15 con­sol­i­da­tion plus Bull Engulf. 
    • Took out the few sin­gle prints in C test­ing IB edge after hav­ing formed a poor low. 
    • Closed as failed auc­tion, M30 Morn­ing Star.
      • Entry on TPO close offers a bad SL placement
      • Entry on the M15 would have been perfect.
  • F: TPO closed deep­er into IB form­ing H1 Bull Engulf.
    • At TPO close the trade off M15 Bull Engulf would have yield­ed 1.7R
  • G: Closed slight­ly deep­er into IB, no rota­tion yet. Trade would have held to 1.9R. LTF show­ing signs of slow­ing down. 
  • H: Closed as M30 con­sol­i­da­tion with long buy­ing wick
  • I: Looks like sell off might con­tin­ue after all tak­ing out the poor low at the moment of fin­ish­ing writ­ing up this DRC. Closed as M30 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down.

Hypos

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• GBPNZD
  • Hypo 2 – Con­tin­u­a­tion (short)
    • Pre­ferred: IB clos­ing below W1 C‑dem prefer­ably tak­ing out LTF demand with IB extend­ing down (prefer­ably on momentum)
    • 90% 
      • Even though the hypo played it there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the IB exten­sion down even though it was on momen­tum. Under­ly­ing H4/D1 C‑dems made sure of that. 
      • If I hadn’t got­ten in ear­ly on dur­ing IB I would not have had a good oppor­tu­ni­ty due to IB being to wide and my SL place­ment would have been not great to say the least. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I did well here going off H4/H1 and M30 com­bi­na­tion using a nar­ra­tive reject­ing over­head H4/D1 sup­ply. The trade could have net­ted a lot more (3.8R) if I had used nor­mal exit rules. Since this is my first time I will not dwell on this. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I did well here

How well did I fol­low my process?

• I did well here for the most part. Yes, I did cut off the first trade too quick­ly but as men­tioned ear­li­er as it was my first time I will not dwell on this. Took notes for my Play­book and mov­ing on. 
• The 2nd oppor­tu­ni­ty that pre­sent­ed itself I didn’t feel like tak­ing because:
  • A bit tired today
  • Already pock­et­ed some prof­its. Slow start of the month due to US elections.
  • M30 PA still looked bear­ish and with IB exten­sion down the pro­file was tech­ni­cal­ly bear­ish as well. Fur­ther­more, at the time of the M15 Bull Engulf the pro­file left behind a poor low and this is my first time observ­ing a move away from the poor low dur­ing the ses­sion. Which is not that uncom­mon I believe it’s just that I had not con­scious­ly expe­ri­enced it. The M15 Bull Engulf did hold into a M30 Bull Engulf. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did fair­ly well here even though I am tired. I did well to eat lat­er on in the ses­sion again after I had tak­en my first trade and pock­et­ed some profits.

What did I learn today?

• I have encoun­tered the fol­low­ing phe­nom­e­non mul­ti­ple times now and will keep track of it. When approach­ing a large time frame c‑line from the inside of the demand/supply price tends to react and some­times even reverse.
• I learned how I can use LN open influx of traders into an align­ment with medi­um time­frame PA to trade with the direc­tion. I have observed this time after time but today was my first time act­ing on it. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Exper­i­ment and take notes

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Believe I have to take every trade…. Analy­sis and cap­i­tal preser­va­tion over risky trades. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well here

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 11162020

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