Daily Report Card 08262020

#dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: Sit­ting on your hands

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry: Sit­ting on your hands

• GBPNZD (Nor­mal Day, IB extend­ed 1x)
  • Open inside value
  • C: M30 three inside down
  • D: Looks like it might have reject­ed val­ue with H1 Bear Engulf, I am con­sid­er­ing a late sus­tained auc­tion entry but M15 is show­ing a con­sol­i­da­tion right on top of D1-C‑D 2.00208 plus H4 c‑dem right under­neath (old). This can be con­sid­ered the last week of the month so don’t want to risk los­ing my gains on a sub­par setup.
  • E: closed as M30 inside bar with M15 Bull Engulf after short con­sol­i­da­tion, this could have been a quick in and out oppor­tu­ni­ty perhaps. 
    • I real­ized I could poten­tial­ly have a 2nd chance entry short on the H1 Bear Engulf but again with under­neath demand it is a sub­op­ti­mal R/R
  • F: Closed as H1 Inside bar, M30 Three Inside Up but didn’t close inside IB so it is still con­sid­ered a sus­tained auc­tion and we might see fur­ther downside. 
• DE30 DAX (pos­si­ble Nor­mal Day)
  • Open below val­ue, out­side range (0.5x ASR), with­in session’s range
    • A touched ses­sion low closed as bull engulf, B inside bar
  • C: Closed as RBR, no IB extension
  • D: IB exten­sion up, test­ing VAL (hit POC), close just below value
  • E: Closed with­in val­ue but also near­ly rotat­ed val­ue. Val­ue being tight and near­by D1-C‑S 13131.34 don’t see a rea­son to go long here. Also, I am get­ting accus­tomed to the way DAX behaves so tak­ing notes is good enough for now. Plus I am also track­ing the hypos in order of prob­a­bil­i­ty, if any. 
  • F: Closed as M30 Bear Engulf below val­ue (not reject­ing it since we already rotat­ed through it) 

Hypos

• Was I right on the direc­tion of the session?
  • GBPNZD — YES
  • DAX — YES
• Which hypo played out (if any)?
  • GBPNZD
    • Hypo 1 — 50%
    • Hypo 2 — 100%
  • DAX
    • Hypo 2 — 100% but there is a caveat*
• How did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out?
  • GBPNZD
    • Hypo 1: respon­sive activ­i­ty day. Due to open being so close (with­in 3 ticks) decid­ed to call it an open inside day ie. respon­sive activ­i­ty day. 
    • Hypo 2: val­ue rejec­tion, bounce off H4-C‑S 2.00668
  • DAX
    • Hypo 2: val­ue acceptance*
• How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • GBPNZD
    • 2 sce­nar­ios
      • open below val­ue, inside range
        • Ear­ly val­ue accep­tance, near­ly rotat­ing through before revers­ing at H4-C‑S 2.00668
      • Open inside val­ue (which I choose)
        • Bounce off H4-C‑S 2.00668 and attempt at reject­ing value
  • DAX
    • Hypo 2 did play out but it wasn’t the move of the day. The move of the day was a bounce off yesterday’s low (not ses­sion low) dur­ing IB which then pro­ceed­ed high­er even­tu­al­ly accept­ing val­ue. Price action includ­ing to C could have war­rant­ed a long posi­tion but due to unclear loca­tion in rela­tion to pro­file sen­ti­ment, plus oth­er rea­sons ie. kin­da new to DAX and claw­ing out of a draw­down as well as being last week of the month, I decid­ed not to trade. There were oth­er rea­sons out­lined above. Even though equi­ties love going long more than short, larg­er time frame sug­gests a pos­si­ble phase 3 plus there is D1 C‑Sup near­by so didn’t want to trade right into that either. Plus val­ue being so tight a rota­tion wouldn’t yield much R/R. In the end. If I lack the clar­i­ty, and if there is no clear way to get an opti­mal R, I sim­ply don’t trade. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• Besides the open on GBPNZD I did well
• The nor­mal day in GBPNZD I could use in the future to deter­mine a tar­get if I do wish to trade this.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good. Calm. Col­lect­ed. Rational. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Did well here

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• Did well here. Gonna keep up eat­ing lat­er in the ses­sion as I notice a high­er ener­gy lev­el ie. clear­er mind. This com­bined with work­ing out is the secret 🙂 

What did I learn today?

• When things are ambigu­ous it is an obvi­ous rea­son that I lack clar­i­ty. When I lack clar­i­ty. I don’t trade. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Trust the process. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I want to say: try­ing to define every­thing but I dis­agree with that 🙂 mul­ti­ple per­son­al­i­ties here? It’s just that that is how I grow con­fi­dent because I have clear cut bound­aries through which I can maneu­ver. Even though those bound­aries are abid­ing by prob­a­bilis­tic laws and things aren’t as clear cut in every sit­u­a­tion. I can live with the prob­a­bilis­tic and uncer­tain out­comes. Just try­ing to get the stats in my favor. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep DE30 DAX 08262020

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Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 08262020

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