Daily Report Card 08192020

#dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: One foot in front of the other

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

Sum­ma­ry: One foot in front of the other

• GBPNZD — Trend Day
  • LN open below val­ue out­side range and pro­ceed­ed down to ADR 0.5 at M30 QLo
  • C: Entry Long 2.00024 SL 1.996760 TP 2.00506 as per Hypo 1
    • Ear­ly entry on M15 Morn­ing Star at ADR 0.5 and M30 QLo coin­cid­ing with H4-C‑S 1.99938 
    • Rea­sons for entry: LN open out­side val­ue out­side range, IB wider than usu­al trad­ing at ADR 0.5 and M30 QLO plus near­by H4-C‑D 1.99938 Big Con: H4 Phase 3 tran­si­tion into Phase 4
    • C closed as a DBD and sus­tained auc­tion through LLs and IB extension
  • D: Hypo 1 inval­i­dat­ed for now. Closed as con­tin­u­a­tion down with LLs. Hypo 2 seems to be in play. 
    • A fur­ther expan­sion on hypo 2 could be the fol­low­ing: Due to IB range wider than usu­al (even though in ‘nor­mal cas­es’ this means prob­a­bly no momen­tum plays), if in com­bi­na­tion with a H4 Phase 3 to 4 tran­si­tion (fur­ther sup­port­ed by DBD on M30 and H1) we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion negat­ing the mean rever­sion. Fur­ther fac­tors to sup­port this play would be a sus­tained auc­tion, ADR exhaus­tion dur­ing LN for a pos­si­ble uni­di­rec­tion­al session.
  • E: Closed as a con­tin­u­a­tion and con­tin­ued to make LLs with no signs yet of a rever­sal, M15 closed as a base which hints to fur­ther con­tin­u­a­tion, ADR exhausted
  • F: Took out M30 demand at ADR exhaus­tion as well as H4 demand, closed as continuation, 
  • G: LLs

Hypos

• Was I right on the direc­tion of the session?
  • Accord­ing to hypo 2 yes but not accord­ing to Hypo 1 (which was flawed in its assump­tion out­lined underneath)
• Which hypo played out (if any)?
  • Hypo 2 played out 90%
    • I take off the 10% due to mis-read­ing the LN open in my hypothesis
• How did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out?
  • I hypoth­e­sized a wider than usu­al IB range and exhaust­ing ADR ‘ear­ly on’ with a sus­tained auction
• How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Mar­ket opened below val­ue with­in range after a H4 phase 3 tran­si­tion into 4. Pro­file showed a sus­tained auc­tion through LLs and IB exten­sion and we did exhaust ADR (dur­ing LN is more like­ly to see a con­tin­u­a­tion) tak­ing out low­er and medi­um time frame demand ZOIs.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I gave valid­i­ty to a H4 c‑line that I should not have done. This caused me to believe there was an align­ment for a pos­si­ble mean rever­sion play.
• Some­how I failed to reg­is­ter that LN open was below val­ue and inside range and instead was out­side range fur­ther enhanc­ing the notion of a pos­si­ble mean reversion
  • Nor­mal­ly I post my prep 2 hours before mar­ket open. Today I decid­ed to switch it up and post after I sit at my desk get­ting ready to trade. I had writ­ten most of the prep before­hand and decid­ed I should wait for LN open to final­ize the hypos. This was a bit tight but not undoable. Will con­tin­ue exper­i­ment­ing with this since it offers a more com­plete pic­ture of poten­tial hypos I sum­ma­rize in the prep. 
  • Solu­tion: dou­ble check 00 on pro­file next time (even though you can see it from the can­dle as well) Very sil­ly mis­take and that’s enough neg­a­tiv­i­ty since I placed a rule in place to offer a solu­tion for next time.
• When I switched to Hypo 2 I think I did well read­ing pro­file as well as price action and con­text ie ADR exhaus­tion dur­ing LN to fur­ther enhance my bias of a uni­di­rec­tion­al day
  • This is fur­ther enhanc­ing with the con­fir­ma­tion through a mod­er­ate imbal­ance due to open below val­ue but with­in range

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt frus­trat­ed fum­bling around with FX syn­er­gy. Solu­tion: don’t take trades when FX syn­er­gy is not work­ing. This again feeds into the idea that some­how I have to ‘hur­ry’ and make a lot of trades. Relax and trade when­ev­er every­thing aligns. That means no fum­bling either. 
• I feel good after­wards. Learned a lot today and get­ting back into the groove of being the scientist. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• I thought I did well here but made a few mis­takes out­lined above that caused me to mis­read the narrative. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. I will exper­i­ment skip­ping a meal or not real­ly skip­ping just chang­ing the time of the meal I have to lat­er in the ses­sion or afterwards

What did I learn today?

• H4 c‑lines valid­i­ty 24 hours not longer
• Check place­ment exact open

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Fail­ing to suc­cess. Fail. Review. Improve. Repeat. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Feed neg­a­tive thoughts. Move on. #NEXT

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did okay here. I should have picked up on the open. This is a rook­ie mis­take. Learn and improve. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 08192020

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