Daily Report Card 07282020

28 Jul Daily Report Card 07282020

#dai­lyre­port­card #trad­ing­forex #forex #FX #BLACKGOLD #CRUDE #CRUDEOIL #GBPNZD #XAUUSD #GOLD #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #NEXT #Process #Patience #Per­sis­tence

Sum­ma­ry: Process. Patience. Persistence.

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal

Have cor­rect SL place­ment and thus posi­tion sized accordingly.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry: Process. Patience. Persistence.

• WTI
  • LN open above VAH, M30 Bull Engulf at VAH pre­mar­ket clos­ing with­in H4 QHi, pos­si­bil­i­ty of val­ue accep­tance, but a move away from val­ue is look­ing good as well. Best opp: M30 Bear Engulf + Val­ue Accep­tance to go short with D1-C‑S B.E. 41.396 nearby
  • Closed with M30 bear engulf but no val­ue accep­tance hence have to wait for anoth­er TPO close in case of a short. Long is still in play if we go the oth­er way. H1 show­ing con­sol­i­da­tion just above H4-CD B.E. 41.280.
  • C: bare­ly closed with­in val­ue, not con­vinc­ing enough to short, fur­ther­more ADR 0.5 is with­in val­ue only giv­ing 1R oppor­tu­ni­ty, H1 con­sol­i­da­tion still in play pos­si­ble return to val­ue play so look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion a break away from VAH but not look­ing too promis­ing either with over­head supply
  • D: M30 Bull Engulf clos­ing just below H4 QHi (and with­in IB after it slight­ly extend­ed down), low prob­a­bil­i­ty set­up with over­head sup­ply still there and even IB break­out would still have anoth­er sup­ply over­head H4 and low­er time frames
  • E: E made a lit­tle buy­ing tail and closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion or RBR from pre­vi­ous bull engulf, all in all no clear price action com­bined with tight SD zones and lack of val­ue accep­tance war­rant stay­ing out of the market
  • F: Still no real val­ue acceptance
  • G: ham­mer cre­at­ed with­in value
  • H: M30 Morn­ing star reject­ing val­ue, H4 clos­ing as a slight­ly inde­ci­sive con­tin­u­a­tion on the down­wards move from sup­ply not clos­ing with­in demand and above H4-C‑D 41.280, H4 QHi and over­head sup­ply as well as no failed auc­tion (yet) war­rant stay­ing out going long due to sub­op­ti­mal R/R
  • I: move back to VWAP
  • J: more mean­der­ing around VAH I am going to stop report­ing on this
  • K: 
  • L:
• DE30
  • Trad­ing with­in H4 QLo, LN open with­in val­ue, IB tried reject­ing val­ue into over­head low­er time frame sup­ply but returned, in the case of a close above H4 QLo a momen­tum trade could be in play
  • Price returned to value
  • C: still with­in val­ue, pos­si­ble opp: val­ue rejec­tion, M30 close above H4 QLo tak­ing out sup­ply, IB exten­sion, hence my buy stop at 12945, 3R TP at 13058, SL 12907 rea­sons: bounce off H4-C‑D 12849.79 and near­by W1-C‑D 12919.54
  • D: Val­ue rejec­tion through M30 bar / H1 bull engulf out­side val­ue but still has over­head sup­ply that needs to be tak­en out which would coin­cide a break of IB and tak­ing out of over­head sup­ply, a con is ADR 0.5 but in lieu of mul­ti-day brack­et­ing a break from range could poten­tial­ly war­rant a sig­nif­i­cant move
  • E: a Bear Engulf was formed return­ing back into val­ue and I am con­sid­er­ing tak­ing my buy stop order off since odds of a move in my favor are dimin­ish­ing plus F reached slight­ly low­er already on the profile
  • F: pos­si­ble val­ue rejec­tion to the down­side after E clos­ing as bear engulf, will review lat­er if this would have been a viable opportunity
  • G: a move tak­ing out ADR 0.5 and ADR exhaus­tion, bar clos­ing with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick
  • H: Inside bar below ADR 0.5 after ADR exhaustion
  • I: M30 DBD but also formed a ledge at 12807.10
  • J: J formed a sec­ond ledge at 12775.60 and the sell­ing tail in G might get slow­ly tak­en out although it is just as pos­si­ble that the ledge will get tak­en out as well due to near-prox­im­i­ty (and ADR 0.5 and ADR exhaus­tion) to it but then there is still the ledge formed dur­ing I
    • The ledge dur­ing J got tak­en out and price might be revers­ing but we still have the ledge from I
    • Ledge from I still intact and J closed as an inside bar or poten­tial DBD
• GBPNZD
  • LN open above val­ue, M30 sup­ply tak­en out dur­ing IB near­ing H4 QHi and ADR exhaus­tion, price reached H4 QHi
  • M30 inside bar almost retrac­ing the whole of the pre­ced­ing bar at H4 QHi and ADR exhaus­tion, H1 invert­ed ham­mer poten­tial­ly a RBR con­sid­er­ing ADR exhaus­tion is in sight dur­ing LN. Poten­tial play break out from con­sol­i­da­tion going with the trend
  • C: M30 con­sol­i­da­tion just below H4 QHi and ADR can be con­sid­ered exhaust­ed, war­rant­i­ng a more bull­ish sen­ti­ment, look­ing for pull­backs or breakouts
  • D: Con­sol­i­da­tion still in progress how­ev­er slight­ly reached high­er and ADR is offi­cial­ly exhaust­ed, H1 RBR @ H4-C‑S 1.93552, 
  • E: M30 Break­out from con­sol­i­da­tion but due to the length of the con­sol­i­da­tion I am los­ing con­fi­dence in a poten­tial con­tin­u­a­tion sub­stan­tial enough to war­rant a good risk reward, this cou­pled with the H4/H1 sup­ply over­head and run­ning out of time in my trad­ing win­dow (late in the ses­sion) I think it would be hard for price to break sup­ply dur­ing LN trad­ing window. 
  • F: closed as a weak inside bar poten­tial­ly form­ing a RBR with no sell­ing tail could very well be a RBR
  • G: G closed as M30 RBR and cre­at­ed a slight sell­ing tail
  • H:M30 Bear Engulf
  • I: No fol­low through on the Bear Engulf which was to be expect­ed due to signs of a uni­di­rec­tion­al day, instead M30 consolidation 
  • J: con­sol­i­da­tion continues

Week­ly Goal Achieve­ment: Have cor­rect SL place­ment and sizing

• No trades tak­en but I did place a buy stop order and had cor­rect siz­ing and SL place­ment IMO

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?

• WTI
  • I was eye­ing a pos­si­ble val­ue accep­tance as a play but due to ADR 0.5 under­neath and very tight SD ZOIs around I decid­ed even that would be a sub­op­ti­mal play as was the return to val­ue play
• DE30
  • Because of MP show­ing brack­et­ing and an inside val­ue open I wait­ed to see a rejec­tion of val­ue which I thought was com­ing towards the upside. SO I placed my buy stop order just above IB range which coin­cid­ed with tak­ing out of over­head sup­ply and con­se­quent free space to let opti­mal R/R play out. This play didn’t come to fruition sad­ly. What fol­lowed was an oppo­site play, a M30 Bear Engulf with­in val­ue and con­se­quent val­ue rejec­tion to the down­side. Due to price action for­ma­tion with­in val­ue and ADR 0.5 being so close (1.1R) under­neath I decid­ed to not take the trade. If I had I would have net­ted at least 2 but even 3 which was my ini­tial TP tar­get for DE30 any­way due to its appar­ent mon­strous behav­ior which I have yet to expe­ri­ence but sure­ly will come. I have cat­a­logued it into my play­book since we did come off a low­er time frame down­trend and the bear engulf hap­pened at the VWAP LKC inter­sec­tion which I used to trade off of. 
• GBPNZD
  • Due to ADR being exhaust­ed or quite near to get­ting exhaust­ed dur­ing LN I did stay bull­ish through­out the ses­sion. I was look­ing for a best entry giv­en my entry rules. When IB turned into a con­sol­i­da­tion and came with a strong fin­ish­er break­ing out from IB I hes­i­tat­ed slight­ly due to a momen­tum move in a FX pair dur­ing sum­mer time not being the best play. I then quick­ly turned around and placed a buy lim­it order at the break of con­sol­i­da­tion to catch a pos­si­ble 2nd chance entry. Then due to over­head sup­ply not giv­ing much of a good tar­get com­bined with con­sol­i­da­tion tak­ing longer than I’d have liked I decid­ed to take the lim­it order off. Price did even­tu­al­ly almost vis­it­ed that lev­el but not quite and would have missed it any­way. Noth­ing a ‘spread mar­gin’ off of ini­tial con­sol­i­da­tion break would not have fixed. Based on time-based stop I would have net­ted close to scratch any­way so noth­ing big lost.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• No trades tak­en but I felt slight­ly ner­vous dur­ing the first hour of trad­ing. I find that I often have that but then focus­ing on the process keeps me calm and col­lect­ed. After it was kin­da smooth sailing.

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Great

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• Great

What did I learn today?

• Process. Patience. Persistence.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Keep fol­low­ing rules

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Com­pare myself to oth­ers or even a pos­si­ble future-self. I live in the now and my goals and steps to reach my goals are just that: the next step. Process. Patience. Persistence. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did great even though I decid­ed to cut trad­ing off ear­ly today due to mean­der­ing of price on WTI

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 07282020

Pre­mar­ket Prep DE30 DAX 07282020

Pre­mar­ket Prep WTI 07282020