Analyzing your Trading stats Month 7

31 Dec Analyzing your Trading stats Month 7

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­ing­forex #forex #trad­ingjour­nal #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #track­y­ourstats #trad­ingstats

So you’ve been trad­ing for a while. How do you know what to look for? How do you know what you are doing right and wrong? Which set­up works best? What time of day works best? How long do I let win­ners and losers run? How much is my expectan­cy? What is my risk to reward ratio? In oth­er words: how much mon­ey am I putting on the line to make how much? Just by look­ing at these stats you will get real insight into your strengths and weak­ness­es. Do not over­look this. Do not be one of those peo­ple that just trade and trade and trade but nev­er review and won­der where they went wrong. You need to know what to improve upon. 

Thank you for fol­low­ing my progress

First off. For those of you that have been fol­low­ing my jour­ney I’d like to give a big thank you! Almost every­day I upload trad­ing plans and a Dai­ly Report Card. I sin­cere­ly hope my jour­ney some­how adds to your own.

Upslop­ing curve continued

The stats that I am about to share with you help me track what I deem to be impor­tant. These most­ly focus more on my process than actu­al­ly mak­ing mon­ey. Process is king. Mon­ey is just a result of per­form­ing well on your process. Let’s get to some stats.

DRC Track­ing Stats

Here you can find the details of my DRC track­ing sheet. DRC stands for Dai­ly Report Cards. If you would like to take a look at some exam­ples you can do so here. Every trad­ing day I recap my notes, trades, and per­for­mance. I grade myself on how well I exe­cut­ed my plan as this is the most impor­tant. Liv­ing in a prob­a­bilis­tic world of trad­ing mak­ing mon­ey is a side-effect of trad­ing your plan. No one real trad­er in the world has a 100% win rate (if they are please run away quickly). 

DRC Over­all Evaluation

Here you can see that Mon­days, Tues­days and Fri­days are days I per­form bet­ter. Open Above (as well as below) Val­ue Out­side Range as well as opens with­in val­ue are my best trades. Entries tak­ing dur­ing C are still a con­cern but I have been get­ting bet­ter and I believe with time this num­ber will go up. Still the best Entry TPO is D. 

Here you can find the raw data of my DRC track­ing sheet. As always since the file is too big I have pro­vid­ed you with­in a down­load link below it. 

Trades

I took 2 trades in Decem­ber and both were win­ners. Woohooo 100% WIN RATE!! Lam­bos for every­one! Why are you still here? Thought I told you to run away! 🙂 Okay get down to some stats. Yes I took 2 trades and yes both of them made a prof­it. But as you can see fur­ther down my win rate over­all to date is 55%. So please stay. I am not a FURU. Or guru for that mat­ter. Just a guy trad­ing and shar­ing his progress. 

Oppor­tu­ni­ties Presented

This time around I would like to focus on the oppor­tu­ni­ties that pre­sent­ed them­selves but I didn’t cap­i­tal­ize on. Through doing this exer­cise I am try­ing to pin­point if the oppor­tu­ni­ties were with­in my trad­ing plan and rules. If they were, why did I not take the oppor­tu­ni­ty. What made me hes­i­tate. Is there a pat­tern there? Or… on the oth­er side. How did the oppor­tu­ni­ty not fit my plan and rules and is there a way for me to cap­i­tal­ize on this next time around? I have seen a few things hap­pen over and over again. For exam­ple trad­ing direct­ly into a medium/higher time frame supply/demand zone. Observ­ing this time after time gives me more con­fi­dence to per­haps take the oppor­tu­ni­ty next time. 

Side note: Now that I have a bet­ter frame­work of how I view the mar­ket, I believe there are more oppor­tu­ni­ties the mar­ket pro­vides. So I start­ed to count those even though they don’t fit my cur­rent trad­ing rules where­as before I wouldn’t count them.

I observed (ie. sat down in front of the screens) 14 days this month. Of these I found 13 days that gave an oppor­tu­ni­ty. Of these 13 days I only took a trade on 2 sep­a­rate days. So what hap­pened on the remain­ing 11 days? That’s what I am going to dis­sect here:

• 12/1
  • Not accord­ing to rules. Range was too tight. My edge needs a min­i­mum aver­age range ses­sion to work out. 
• 12/3
  • First day of adding Gold back into the mix so when an ear­ly entry pre­sent­ed itself in GBPNZD, I was busy writ­ing the Week­ly trad­ing plan for Gold. 
• 12/4
  • Not accord­ing to rules. There was a News Event Dri­ven ‘burst’ that came into the mar­ket. Even though I was aligned with the direc­tion I had not tak­en a posi­tion and missed out on the move. Did well to stay out after­wards as this would have been FOMO. I am still learn­ing how to trade NED plays so the more I observe the bet­ter I can cap­i­tal­ize anoth­er time. 
• 12/8
  • Not accord­ing to rules. This day I saw an oppor­tu­ni­ty on the M5 but there was no clear sig­nal (or incom­plete poten­tial price pat­tern) on the M15/M30. With let­ting M30 guide my trades I couldn’t jus­ti­fy going in with a M5 sig­nal. I am get­ting bet­ter at spot­ting M5 oppor­tu­ni­ties though. 
• 12/9
  • Not accord­ing to rules. This day there was a momen­tum trade right into a H4 demand. I usu­al­ly stay away from these trades as the oppos­ing sup­ply or demand can be reac­tive. Although I have observed on plen­ty occa­sions how price reacts when it is ready to ‘pen­e­trate’ the medium/high time frame sup­ply or demand. Price usu­al­ly is more like­ly to cre­ate counter-direc­tion­al price action even on pro­file but the medium/timeframe devel­op­ing can­dle can lead you into stay­ing with the direc­tion. This way you can see how low­er time­frame pat­terns are cre­at­ed with­in a medium/higher time­frame framework. 
• 12/10
  • Not accord­ing to rules. Same as 12/9 trad­ing into demand. Did take a paper trade being in the process to learn trad­ing these setups. The paper trade made a hypo­thet­i­cal 4R prof­it. I don’t count these though. 
• 12/11
  • Not accord­ing to rules. Price trad­ed into medi­um time frame demand.
• 12/16
  • Not accord­ing to rules. Same as 12/9 and 12/10 trad­ing into demand. Fur­ther­more, this month being Decem­ber I want­ed to pro­tect prof­its but also I only had 1R buffer at the time of this poten­tial opportunity. 
• 12/17
  • Not accord­ing to rules. The entry was based on M5 and no clear pat­tern on M15 or M30. When there was one the move had moved too far already and SL place­ment would have been terrible.
• 12/21
  • Not accord­ing to rules. The move was based off a retest of new­ly formed M15 demand. This entry would have giv­en a good SL place­ment. Any­thing after­wards was not. 
• 12/23
  • The oppor­tu­ni­ty was right at the open so didn’t take it as I was also writ­ing my pre­mar­ket prep. I did take note of it and next time per­haps I can take it. I call this the ‘Influx of play­ers at open’. Prob­a­bly ‘open­ing dri­ve’ is a bet­ter name for it. 

Equi­ty curve

Start­ed the month with +5.77% and cur­rent­ly I am at +7.46%. My prof­itable trades this month gen­er­at­ed +1.69%. ‘Win­ning Streak’ since Sep­tem­ber up by 17.18%. 

Novem­ber:

Decem­ber:

Over­all Evaluation

Woohoo!!! 100% WIN RATE for Decem­ber! I am Da BomB!!! 🙂 Only two trades though 🙂

For some rea­son this month my Prof­it Fac­tor was­n’t cal­cu­lat­ed. Per­haps due to only hav­ing 2 trades? Not sure. Last month my prof­it fac­tor was 2.82 check out my pre­vi­ous month here.

Plan

I had hoped to get more trades in dur­ing Decem­ber but the mar­ket giveth when­ev­er it giveth 🙂 Or some­thing like that. Nonethe­less. I will take the plunge and try out for a prop firm in Jan­u­ary. I made a basic com­par­i­son of The 5ers and Top­stepFX but decid­ed to devote an entire post to that. So hang tight for that post as I am still work­ing on it. The rea­son why I am not con­sid­er­ing FTMO is the time lim­it they oppose on you. I do not want to feel any pres­sure of hav­ing to take a trade. If the mar­ket sim­ply isn’t pro­vid­ing me with the right oppor­tu­ni­ty I sim­ply do not trade. 

Pre­vi­ous Month­ly Goals

• Con­tin­ue track­ing hypos
  • Did well here. Will con­tin­ue the exercise.
• Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Did well here. Will con­tin­ue the exercise.
• Feel­ing okay with NOT trading 
  • Did very well here as you can see I only took 2 trades this month. 
• Don’t trade dur­ing TPO C, unless there is a momen­tum trade
  • I am doing well with this and even took a trade dur­ing A!
• Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Doing well with this
• Min­i­mum of 3 days of work­ing out, aim for 5.
  • Did real­ly well with this until the hol­i­days as new cas­es emerged and as a pre­cau­tion I stayed away from the gym. I did add jog­ging to make up for some of it. 

If you have made it all the way through… Here is a FREE LAMBO!!! 

Sor­ry no Lam­bo. Nonethe­less, I great­ly appre­ci­ate your inter­est in my jour­ney. I’m sure it is not an easy read as I tend to get long-wind­ed. If you have any com­ments or sug­ges­tions feel free to let me know. Even though I do like writ­ing I don’t con­sid­er myself to be much of a writer. I rather talk or play online games 🙂 Reach out to me. Games I play when I have time:

• Online Chess
• Call of Duty
• Flight Sim­u­la­tor 2020
• F1 2018
• Dirt Ral­ly 1 and 2

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram