Gold 2021 Week 40 Trading Plan

03 Oct Gold 2021 Week 40 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GOLD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• MN QHI reject­ed, cur­rent­ly mid swing
• Price closed below MN Sup­ply form­ing an Evening Star but with a slight reac­tion off MN-C‑D 1739.674

Week­ly — Bullish

• Price react­ed off and closed above MN demand and W1 QLo clos­ing as a Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick

Dai­ly — Bullish

• Big D1 Bull Engulf on first test of D1 QLo and slight con­tin­u­a­tion high­er clos­ing below D1 sup­ply coin­cid­ing with new­ly formed MN Supply.

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Bearish

• MN closed bear­ish increas­ing the expec­ta­tion for more down­side. ALthough with the nature of an Evening Star there could be a pull­back 30–50% of last month’s bar before con­tin­u­ing down.
• W1 Closed some­what bull­ish react­ing off demand but let’s see what fol­low-through it gets. There could be some con­tin­u­a­tion high­er first. 
• D1 Bull Engulf could see a test of new­ly formed demand. Price still below D1 VWAP in DT with no close with­in D1 Sup­ply. Price is com­ing from a D1 QLo rejec­tion but will need to clear that sup­ply first for the sen­ti­ment to change to bullish. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Oct 08, 20:30, USD, Non Farm Pay­rolls (Sep)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1807.917
• MN-C‑S 1769.539

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1739.674

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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