20210825 Trade Review DAX

27 Aug 20210825 Trade Review DAX

Play: Auc­tion Fade

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

Mar­ket Narrative

D1 had trad­ed and closed high­er return­ing to D1 Sup­ply base lev­el indi­cat­ing a pos­si­bil­i­ty to con­tin­ue high­er to the orig­i­nat­ing lev­el at D1-C‑S 15966.51.

A H4 Bull Engulf was formed but out­side of RTH in pre­mar­ket. Trend is up 2/3. Open 0.03xASR above val­ue, with­in range indi­cat­ing mod­er­ate imbalance. 

Price pro­ceed­ed to accept val­ue and extend to the down­side in a sus­tained move rotat­ing through value. 

What hypo was it?

Hypo 2

Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to hypo 3

I gath­ered with new­ly formed H4 demand (made out­side of RTH) near­by plus cou­pled with the right time of day there could be a bounce from this level.

How was the Entry?

Entry was off a M5 Three Inside Up which I want­ed to tran­si­tion into a Bull­ish M15 can­dle which did not come. Instead an inside bar with longer sell­ing wick was formed. Sell­ing wicks not entire­ly trust­wor­thy in DAX I decid­ed to stick with the trade think­ing the trad­ing loca­tion was good. This was not. 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Good just below the M5 entry although slight­ly cut­ting so had to adjust this a lit­tle but still with­in the mar­gin of error on SL place­ment ie. +- 1%

How was the prof­it target?

This is where I went wrong. I still, for some rea­son, had in my head I can let the trade go to IB low and then wait for a Failed Auc­tion to con­tin­ue high­er expect­ing great R‑multiples in return. How­ev­er, with an Auc­tion Fade the tar­get is IB low. Here IB low proved to have a sub­par prof­it mar­gin and thus the whole set­up should not have been tak­en. This, and that val­ue had been rotat­ed first. It would’ve been bet­ter if this was not the case since a val­ue rota­tion to rever­sal have a very low suc­cess rate. 

How was the Exit?

Got stopped out ‑1R

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

-1R

What did I do well?

I did well to take my stop. I saw the buy­ing tail get­ting tak­en out and I felt like cut­ting the trade but as I am re-learn­ing to stick with a trade I decid­ed to take my stop if need be. It got tak­en out 🙂

What could I have done better?

I could’ve bet­ter under­stood the nar­ra­tive that after a val­ue rota­tion price is less like­ly to reverse in a nor­mal fash­ion. Plus if the prof­it tar­get isn’t suf­fi­cient I shouldn’t be in the trade to begin with. 

Obser­va­tions

SL place­ment not good? DON’T TAKE THE TRADE! Sub­par prof­it tar­get? DON’T TAKE THE TRADE!

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

N.A. 

TAGS: above val­ue, with­in range, mod­er­ate imbal­ance, trend is up 2/3, 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

20210825 Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210825

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