Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210601

01 Jun Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210601

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 22 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Cur­rent­ly trad­ing below last week’s body with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price is trad­ing with yesterday’s body and range test­ing over­head supply
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and move high­er giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.95233 clos­ing below H4-C‑S 1.95531
  • Price trad­ing mid H4 swing
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1251
  • ASR: 857
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96000
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94896

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.95233 with­in Value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.31xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Closed high­er slight­ly with­in H4 Supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price test­ed new­ly formed D1 demand and closed above val­ue with mod­er­ate imbal­ance so there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er. Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply could be risky though. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, retest of new­ly formed D1 demand, Mid H4 swing com­ing from H4 QLo rejection
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion pos­si­bly tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply End, pos­si­ble exten­sion below with test of val­ue edge in which case fad­ing the auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade and/or TPO struc­ture could be preferred
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 Supply
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: trad­ing right below D1 Sup­ply, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 demand with­in value
• Hypo 3 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, (near­ly) pop­ping of D1 sup­ply at D1 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: TPO struc­ture and PA rever­sal. Pos­si­bly fad­ing the auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade.
  • Con: If D1 sup­ply does get popped there could be grounds for a continuation 
• Hypo 4 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.95531

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95233
• D1-C‑D 1.94889

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit anx­ious so will be a bit care­ful. Also, with being the first day of the month I do not need to go wild on the first day.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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