Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210419

19 Apr Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210419

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 15 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 50MA in DT BO to pos­si­bly CAS, no W1 rever­sal pat­tern (yet)
• W1 demand got tak­en out last week

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 50MA in UT BD to CAR after Bull Engulf above D1 QLo, LKC in UT and D1 200MA
  • H4 Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.92290 with fol­low-through (break­ing above H4 Qlo) to H4 VWAP in DT trad­ing slight­ly above to H4 50MA in DT trad­ing mid H4 swing
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend after an uptrend hit­ting a HTF sup­ply and reversing
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1245
  • ASR: 911
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93810
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91730

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4 200MA and D1-C‑S 1.94900 at H4 QHi
  • D1-C‑D 1.92921 at H4 QLo and above VAH
  • H4-C‑D 1.92290 above D1 QLo
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a doji with longer sell­ing wick. Pos­si­ble DBD in the making. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large imbal­ance at the open after a M30 VWAP in UT BD. Not far above D1 c‑dem so shorts can be tricky. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open, pos­si­ble H4 DBD in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Momen­tum exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to Val­ue edge
  • Con: D1 demand right below at M30 LKC in UT coin­cid­ing with M30 QLo, plus price is mid M30/H4 swing
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 c‑dem at VAH, M30/H4 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion down, bull­ish PA rever­sal to failed auc­tion, pos­si­bly form­ing a neu­tral day
  • Con: Large imbal­ance at the open

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.92921
• H4-C‑D 1.92290

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing jumpy, didn’t sleep well. Gonna sit today out in terms of trad­ing but will observe and take notes.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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