Premarket Prep Gold 20210310

10 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210310

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body but in the middle
• W1 Phase 4 still possible

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf formed giv­ing D1-C‑D 1707.500
  • H4 VWAP in DT break out, H4 Phase 2 with clean arrival at H4 50MA in DT + H4-C‑S 1715.630 form­ing a Three Inside Down
  • Pre­mar­ket: reac­tion off new­ly formed D1 C‑dem and closed as an Inside Bar
• Trend: H4 , D1 , W1 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above pre­vi­ous value
  • ADR: 33555
  • ASR: 19920
    • 500
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1720.550
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1660.20

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1707.500 at VAH and M30 QLo
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With a larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment and two con­sec­u­tive opens above val­ue we see a shift in sen­ti­ment. Plus a D1 Bull Engulf was formed at D1/W1 demand lev­els of which the con­ter­mi­nous line was test­ed pre­mar­ket. With D1 C‑dem and H4 sup­ply there we could see fur­ther con­sol­i­da­tion unless we can see a val­ue accep­tance to show for more down­side as we are at H4 50MA in DT. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 DBD in the mak­ing at Sup­ply with larg­er time frame bear­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull Engulf and open above sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Test of VAH with Bull­ish price con­fir­ma­tion, per­haps a failed auc­tion even oth­er­wise an IB exten­sion up but a sus­tained auc­tion might be trou­ble­some due to over­head sup­ply. Thus a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion might be form­ing and thus we could pos­si­bly trade swing high and low. In this case low. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1725.10
• H4-C‑S 1715.630
• H4-C‑S 1705.958

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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