Premarket Prep Gold 02082021

08 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 02082021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below W1 Three Out­side Down deep with­in W1 demand and W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside Bar cre­at­ed clos­ing just above D1 QLo
  • H4 Closed slight­ly Above D1 QLO fol­lowed by a gap up over the week­end and ini­tial reac­tion off H4 VWAP in DT
  • Pre­mar­ket: Bull­ish Inside Bar cre­at­ed with­in new­ly formed sup­ply clos­ing above D1 QLo
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT with cur­rent­ly price above value
  • ADR: 27652
  • ASR: 20474
    • 512
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1815.060
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1791.920

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1795.513 below VAL inside range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate imbal­ance. With H4 and D1 being down and arrival and new­ly formed sup­ply at H4 VWAP in DT we could see a move down. Although with open sen­ti­ment above val­ue and a close above D1 QLo we have a bull­ish medi­um time frame nar­ra­tive. A val­ue accep­tance would negate it although it might be less reliable. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment above val­ue with mod­er­ate imbal­ance we could see a test of VAH before con­tin­u­ing high­er as part of a pos­si­ble D1 Three Inside Up / W1 pull­back narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action con­firm­ing and reject­ing H4/D1 QLo with a momen­tum exten­sion up and of course a sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Con­tin­u­a­tion of W1 Three Out­side Down. A full rota­tion could negate the bull­ish sen­ti­ment of hypo 1.
  • Pre­ferred: IB tak­ing out LTF demand and exten­sion down accept­ing val­ue (ear­ly on) with quick rotation.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.101
• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• D1-C‑S 1834.156 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• H4-C‑D 1795.513
• D1-C‑D 1787.150
• H4-C‑D 1772.243

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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