How did I trade today? 01142025

14 Jan How did I trade today? 01142025

Sum­ma­ry: I can still be a muppet

Account (P&L): ‑2R

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Fair Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 4

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Stalk­ing an ear­ly entry based on VAA at close of A.
    • A closed at VAL. No con­fi­dent close with­in val­ue. Pos­si­bly due to LTF sup­ply right at VAL. 
    • Long 1.90022 SL 1.89772 TP 1.90522
      • Should not have gone long as it was not tech­ni­cal­ly an accep­tance let alone a con­fi­dent one. 
    • Took out LTF sup­ply at VAL
    • Got stopped out ‑1R
    • B closed as a Bear Engulf (span­ning almost entire IB of 38 pips) but under­neath it’s rid­dled with LTF demand, H4 demand is slight­ly fur­ther away though. A con­fir­ma­tion of IB exten­sion down would give sub­par SL place­ment although war­rant­ed due to the nature of the move. Eye­ing a 2nd chance entry. HOWEVER… due to medium/higher time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we might see a fake rever­sal. Need more confirmation. 
  • C: Due to the medium/higher time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we might see an exten­sion down react­ing off LTF demand fail­ing auc­tion and extend­ing up.
    • C closed extend­ing down leav­ing a sell­ing wick behind after test­ing new­ly formed M30 c‑line but I hes­i­tat­ed to enter. 
  • D: Closed mak­ing LLs halt­ing above LTF demand with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick
    • I am look­ing for a pos­si­ble rever­sal through failed auc­tion at the close of D. Cons would be mak­ing LLs tak­ing out the cur­rent uncon­firmed buy­ing tail. 
  • E: M15 Three Inside Up at H1 c‑dem near IB edge low (uncon­firmed buy­ing tail in D), expect­ing a failed auc­tion and quick fol­low-through. Risky trade. 
    • Long 1.89755 SL 1.89476 TP 1.90255
    • Closed as Bull Engulf with­in IB fail­ing auc­tion (con­firm­ing tail in D although not much TPO struc­ture mon­i­tor­ing for a quick follow-through
  • F: Closed as doji with longer sell­ing wick but also H1 Bull Engulf although not the strongest. H1 not the most con­fi­dent time­frame so I am look­ing for an exit but still want to see what the next M15 maybe M30 can­dle does. 
  • G: Closed as Three Inside Down clos­ing below IB tak­ing out most of buy­ing tail in D leav­ing one TPO behind. Expect­ing to get stopped out again. Although M5 is form­ing a con­sol­i­da­tion so if there is no break up in the next 5–10 min­utes I don’t see any­thing good hap­pen­ing here. 
  • H: Got stopped out. Total ‑2R. Not a good day. 

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action con­firm­ing rever­sal, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction.
  • 100%
  • Bear Engulf at VAL with con­se­quent IB exten­sion down fol­lowed by bull engulf fail­ing auc­tion with no fol­low-through. Instead fur­ther move lower.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• Okay let’s get into it here. Bad bad day… I will dis­sect each trade below. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt pret­ty calm actu­al­ly dur­ing both trades. I tried stay­ing objec­tive and go through OODA loops. Did not expe­ri­ence much jumpi­ness even though I was bang­ing my head a bit due to the mup­pet moment I had on the entry of the first trade. Let’s get to it. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • Trade 1
    • Hor­ri­ble hor­ri­ble entry. Price closed right at VAL thus mak­ing it hard­ly any form of accep­tance. Plus it was right at a round num­ber. Not sure what I was think­ing here. I did feel a bit hyped com­ing into the ses­sion feel­ing very ener­getic and ‘ready to trade’ so might have jumped the gun there because of it. Plus it can be said that price action before close had some momen­tum behind it. But doesn’t mean any­thing if oth­er con­di­tions aren’t met either. 
    • I should have switched to Hypo 2 instead but got stuck in the trade and got stopped out quickly. 
  • Trade 2
    • Better…Not great. When price dropped below IB and hit LTF demand, think­ing medium/higher time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, start­ed stalk­ing a pos­si­ble rever­sal and failed auc­tion. Based on said visu­al­iza­tion I hopped in on a M15 Three Inside Up mon­i­tor­ing for a tran­si­tion to M30 Bull Engulf and failed auc­tion which did hap­pen. Trade looked to go well in my favor before it halt­ed and turned around. Dur­ing the trade I was think­ing due to the nature of a failed auc­tion I should give it some time to show me there is no push behind it. Which it showed me by stop­ping me out. I believe I got mar­ried to my posi­tion here a bit as I did observe LTF price action fal­ter­ing and revers­ing then clos­ing as a M30 DOji with longer sell­ing wick although this is not a com­plet­ed rever­sal pat­tern). So again… not hap­py with this. One good thing though that I didn’t grasshop­per around. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • Trade 1
    • SL place­ment was good because in my fan­ta­sy world I was expect­ing more momen­tum to come in.
  • Trade 2
    • SL place­ment was nice below M30 Bull Engulf 
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • Trade 1 
    • Got stopped out fair­ly quick so not much to manage
  • Trade 2
    • As indi­cat­ed above I could have got­ten out ear­li­er but due to the nature of a failed auc­tion I want­ed to give it some time while also try­ing to get back to a time-based exit but alas I got stopped out. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here and did not expe­ri­ence much jumpi­ness. I told myself to focus on spe­cif­ic exit con­di­tions which helped me stay more cool-headed. 

What did I learn today?

• I learned that I can still be a mup­pet. Which… to be hon­est… is okay. We can’t all per­form at our best every sin­gle day. That’s why we have risk mea­sures in place pro­tect­ing us from our­selves. Respect your risk. My Dai­ly Loss Lim­it is 2R and I hit it. Done with trad­ing for the day. Come back tomor­row. After being up more than 18% I was bound to hit a moment of mup­pet-ness. At least they are becom­ing less frequent. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• For­get wins and loss­es. All that mat­ters is the next trade. #NEXT

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Think about loss­es. In the grand scheme of things (even in my sta­tis­tics) one trade is only one of many. As I am a lif­er in this busi­ness. This too will wash away as a sand par­ti­cle gets washed away by the ocean at its shore 🙂 am I try­ing to be poet­ic?! What­ev­er… #NEXT

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did not as out­lined above. Although… My mood has been fair­ly good and I am not beat­ing myself over it. Good to know.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 01142021

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 01142021

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