USDCAD — Week 19 Trade Plan

03 May USDCAD — Week 19 Trade Plan

These are my hypo­thet­i­cals for Week 19 of USDCAD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Then I come up with ways I think the mar­ket will react around those lev­els. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my hypoth­e­sis. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I am not sell­ing you any­thing. I just love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Con­ser­v­a­tive­ly Bearish

• After the Month­ly high of Jan­u­ary ‘16 price has retraced back to pre­vi­ous MN Demand ZOI (1.19–1.25) cre­at­ed by pull­back in the imbal­ance lead­ing up to the high in pre­ced­ing years (start­ing 2010/2011)
• Price con­se­quent­ly has been trad­ing side­ways with­in Kelt­ner Chan­nels (upper half),  which has been flat­ten­ing, indi­cat­ing fur­ther bal­anc­ing in mar­ket although price respect­ed 50MA (which is flat­ten­ing con­firm­ing the balancing)
• 2 more rejec­tions of this MN Demand ZOI (1.192–1.245) result­ed in con­se­quent high­er MN Demand ZOIs at 1.25–1.29 and stronger MN Demand at 1.29 — 1.32 (fol­low­ing 50MA) 
• Fol­lowed by a Phase 2 mark up (Jan­u­ary 2020) to pre­vi­ous MN Sup­ply ZOI. Trad­ed slight­ly high­er tak­ing out pre­vi­ous Sup­ply before revers­ing and form­ing a slight­ly high­er new MN Sup­ply ZOI @ upper Kelt­ner band
• Price action nei­ther con­firm­ing or deny­ing a poten­tial rever­sal although price halt­ed at upper Kelt­ner band after mov­ing away from VWAP (slight­ly overex­tend­ed) pos­si­bly sig­nal­ing a mean rever­sion. Fur­ther low­er time frame analy­sis need­ed for direc­tion­al bias
• MN Con­ter­mi­nous Bear­ish 1.394
• No Q points active

Week­ly — Con­ser­v­a­tive­ly Bearish

• Price test­ed pre­vi­ous W1 Sup­ply ZOI 1.47–1.50 with imme­di­ate rejection
• Tall Week­ly Sup­ply ZOI of 1.40–1.47 with price action of unequal can­dle bod­ies indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble phase 3 dis­tri­b­u­tion in process
• Price trad­ing above upper kelt­ner band in a side­ways mar­ket indi­cat­ing a more bear­ish bias because of poten­tial of rever­sal, VWAP pulling up to price, but price action not con­firm­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion of pos­si­ble uptrend (yet) 
• More bear­ish after a pos­si­ble break down of VWAP
• W1 Con­ter­mi­nous Bear­ish 1.397
• No Q points active

Dai­ly — Bearish

• Feb­ru­ary and March on Dai­ly show­ing overex­ten­sion from VWAP as well as Kelt­ner chan­nel with con­se­quent break down of VWAP and re-enter­ing of (widen­ing) KC
• Price has test­ed D1 Sup­ply ZOI 1.40–1.43 mul­ti­ple times
• Fur­ther signs of Phase 3 dis­tri­b­u­tion with­in D1 Sup­ply ZOI with con­se­quent Three Out­side Up at 50MA re-test­ing D1 Sup­ply ZOI indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble overex­ten­sion from VWAP to upper KC (pos­si­ble absorp­tion of buy­ers before fur­ther sell off, need more con­fir­ma­tion on low­er time frame + Mar­ket Profile)
• MN Con­ter­mi­nous Bear­ish 1.406
• No Q points active

H4 — Bearish

• H4 increased volatil­i­ty indi­cat­ed by price exceed­ing upper and low­er KC while in Range
• Last swing low coin­cid­ed with stronger H4 Demand ZOI 1.37–1.38 and move below low­er KC
• VWAP BO with poten­tial overex­ten­sion (from VWAP) in line with pos­si­ble Dai­ly overex­ten­sion to upper KC with­in H4 Sup­ply ZOI 1.42–1.43
• H4 Q points active. Price trad­ing with­in QHi.

Mar­ket Pro­file (still learn­ing to get a bet­ter read on MP)

• Last Friday’s Lon­don ses­sion was in bal­ance with con­se­quent trend day dur­ing NY. Closed with­in NY VA
• Price above Lon­don VAH

Hypo­thet­i­cals for the Lon­don session

1. Swing Rever­sal H4 Sup­ply ZOI
   1. Price action con­firm­ing on H4 reject­ing H4 Sup­ply ZOI
   2. Pos­si­ble short entry around 1.417
   3. Tar­gets 1.411, 1.406, 1.402, extend­ed tar­get 1.396
2. M30 VWAP BD
   1. Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing a break below VWAP
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.406
   3. Tar­gets 1.402, 1.396
3. Prev. Day High Reversal
   1. M30 Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing rejection
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.409
   3. Tar­gets 1.406, 1.402, 1.396

Trade loca­tion for a long-bias

• Swing low to H4 Demand ZOI 1.38 with fur­ther price action confirmation