30072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

30072019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat more healthy by cut­ting out rice, noo­dles, etc. and focus­ing more on veg­gies and meat.
• Goal for the month of August
  • No alco­hol. 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I had a good night of sleep and feel good.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • Crossed over the 50MA and might be look­ing to start a HHTF R, PA has not quite reached UKC yet but could also just as much be due for a PB to 50MA.
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 57.094
    • PVAH 56.531
    • PPOC 56.121
    • PVAL 55.983
    • Prev. Low 55.838
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Small PA lat­er­al mean rever­sion to HTF UKC
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF U TC @ VWAP
    • HTF U TT @ VWAP BD

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF U TT
    • Entry around 57.20
    • Tar­gets 56.90
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC
  • Entry around 57.30
  • Tar­gets 57.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 57.05 — 57.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HHTF
      • Could be due for PBH or could be reach­ing for UKC
    • HTF
      • HTF U TC @ VWAP but a lot of AD going on here so not sure if there will be a TC or TT
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD in effect no clar­i­ty yet
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TC @ VWAP
      • HTF U TT @ VWAP BD + PB
  • 16:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • We did make a move up in line with HTF U TC but might be weak­ness in the move and U TT might still be a valid hypo
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought look­ing for VWAP BD + PB to re-enter after I got stopped out on my first attempt at catch­ing HTF U TT on the front side of the move. 
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TT (more prob­a­ble still. 
      • HTF U TC
  • 17:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Inde­ci­sion can­dle after the U TC move. No clar­i­ty on bias. Still in short posi­tion but might be look­ing to scratch
    • TTF
      • AD @ TTF UKC kin­da look­ing bull­ish still so expect to scratch or stop out
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Still in HTF U TT Short
        • Scratch bey­ong pre­vi­ous swing high
      • TTF R AD UKC BO as part of HTF  U TC move to HHTF UKC
        • Look for PB to enter
  • 17:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Lack of clar­i­ty, got­ta wait for more con­fir­ma­tion on the U TT , if U TC still valid I’ll prob­a­bly be too late to get in.
    • TTF
      • Fail­ure to BO from UKC + pos­si­ble rever­sal can­dle = grow­ing more biased towards HTF U TT
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TT
        • Wait for TTF50MABD
  • 18:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Inde­ci­sive small PA above UKC
    • TTF
      • Stay­ing long-biased above 50MA
      • Pos­si­ble exhaust­ed move get­ting clos­er to HHTF UKC but move doesn’t seem long enough to be con­fi­dent­ly an exhaust­ed move wait for con­fir­ma­tion to either bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
  • 18:35
    • HHTF
      • Get­ting clos­er to UKC
    • HTF
      • Seems the HTF U TC was in effect after all and not­ed it for my log
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD mov­ing upwards above 50ma and VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Am hes­i­tant to take any long posi­tions since we are so close to a HHTF tar­get lev­el ie. HHTF UKC
  • 19:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • Move back to UKC area
      • VWAP moved back into KC
    • TTF
      • Swing highs clos­er to each oth­er plus touch of VWAP + BD
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • No clar­i­ty 
  • 19:35
    • HHTF
      • Pos­si­ble PB to 200MACAS
    • HTF
      • Breach down from UKC
    • TTF
      • 50MABD but halt­ed above LKC
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF U TT @ VWAP BD + PB (prob­a­bly dur­ing NY)
  • 20:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
    • TTF
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF U TT
    • Entry around 57.20
    • Tar­gets 56.90
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC
  • Entry around 57.30
  • Tar­gets 57.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 57.05 — 57.30

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	7/30/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	87
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	5	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	45	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	7	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/2	5	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
1/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	42	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
Ses­sion	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	0	1	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF U TT	10	SO	stop too tight	stop too tight	Give more space to devel­op for a rever­sal move — logged into PB
0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF U TT	10	Scratched	push back at TTF50MA	-	-
2	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF U TC	10	scratched	no push back at 50MA	-	-
3	0	0	(exper­i­men­tal) HTF U TT	10	Hit 1st Target	-	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 & 2 played out — 100%
    • Start­ed ses­sion with Hypo 2 and then turned into Hypo 1
  • Real-time analy­sis — 70%
    • I was forc­ing Hypo 1 and did not antic­i­pate the influx of new buy­ers com­ing in as part of Hypo 1 tak­ing out my stop (which was too tight or else I would have had more trades in profit)
      • This was again a great oppor­tu­ni­ty to trade a mar­ket nar­ra­tive that I have been work­ing on. This is my first time trad­ing this (with the knowl­edge of the nar­ra­tive in mind) so I am not going to be too hard on myself. Hap­py with my progress in under­stand­ing my approach to the mar­ket as per my goal.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here.
  • E: Did well here.
  • CS: Did well here. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I under­stand more about how the rela­tion between my time frames interacts
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to stay calm dur­ing trades and take my stop
  • Did well to not go long while short even though I was very tempt­ed to do so. I can only have one trade idea on direct­ing my trades.
• Negative(s)
  • Due to a blue screen of death (BSOD) on my main PC I spent time I would usu­al­ly write my mar­ket prep on fix­ing the issue. Still not sure if I fixed it but no issues yet. Fin­gers crossed. This is the rea­son I wrote my mar­ket prep when I would nor­mal­ly start watch­ing the ses­sion. Per­haps this lat­er writ­ing of mar­ket prep also aid­ed in a clear­er view on poten­tial hypos. Sad­ly, nor­mal­ly don’t have time to do it right before I start watch­ing the session.
  • Did not do well on forc­ing Hypo 1. I should have let MGI direct my approach. As I was act­ing on hypo1 I saw the signs for hypo 2 and did not shift gears to act on hypo 2 rather to stick it out with trad­ing on Hypo 1. Then when Hypo 1 did come into play I took one trade based on hypo 2 that luck­i­ly I scratched and real­ized my hypo 1 was con­firmed and took a trade on that. I’m gonna replay tomor­row as always and log into my playbook. 
  • One stop I put too tight. Usu­al­ly have a 15 tick stop and work­ing on an exper­i­men­tal rever­sal trade I should have put a wider stop because I got in on the front side of the move. When I rewatch the ses­sion tomor­row I will decode and log in my play­book if enter­ing on the front side is for me or I should just focus on when the trade is con­firmed. My thoughts now sug­gest the lat­ter. Will see tomorrow. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.