30 Jul 30072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal
30072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- R = Range
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- HHTF = Higher High Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
- AD = Accumulation Distribution
Health review
- Weekly goal
- Eat more healthy by cutting out rice, noodles, etc. and focusing more on veggies and meat.
- Goal for the month of August
- No alcohol.
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insufficient sleep?
- I had a good night of sleep and feel good.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quarter position 4= half position 5= full position
- 5
Market Prep
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HHTF
- Crossed over the 50MA and might be looking to start a HHTF R, PA has not quite reached UKC yet but could also just as much be due for a PB to 50MA.
- HTF
- Levels
- Prev. High 57.094
- PVAH 56.531
- PPOC 56.121
- PVAL 55.983
- Prev. Low 55.838
- Levels
- TTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- Small PA lateral mean reversion to HTF UKC
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- HTF U TC @ VWAP
- HTF U TT @ VWAP BD
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF U TT
- Entry around 57.20
- Targets 56.90
- HTF U TT
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTF U TC
- Entry around 57.30
- Targets 57.60
- Hypo 3 Rotational
- 57.05 — 57.30
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- HHTF
- Could be due for PBH or could be reaching for UKC
- HTF
- HTF U TC @ VWAP but a lot of AD going on here so not sure if there will be a TC or TT
- TTF
- TTF R AD in effect no clarity yet
- Opportunity (if any)
- HTF U TC @ VWAP
- HTF U TT @ VWAP BD + PB
- HHTF
- 16:35
- HHTF
- HTF
- We did make a move up in line with HTF U TC but might be weakness in the move and U TT might still be a valid hypo
- TTF
- TTF R Overbought looking for VWAP BD + PB to re-enter after I got stopped out on my first attempt at catching HTF U TT on the front side of the move.
- Opportunity (if any)
- HTF U TT (more probable still.
- HTF U TC
- 17:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- Indecision candle after the U TC move. No clarity on bias. Still in short position but might be looking to scratch
- TTF
- AD @ TTF UKC kinda looking bullish still so expect to scratch or stop out
- Opportunity (if any)
- Still in HTF U TT Short
- Scratch beyong previous swing high
- TTF R AD UKC BO as part of HTF U TC move to HHTF UKC
- Look for PB to enter
- Still in HTF U TT Short
- 17:35
- HHTF
- HTF
- Lack of clarity, gotta wait for more confirmation on the U TT , if U TC still valid I’ll probably be too late to get in.
- TTF
- Failure to BO from UKC + possible reversal candle = growing more biased towards HTF U TT
- Opportunity (if any)
- HTF U TT
- Wait for TTF50MABD
- HTF U TT
- 18:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- Indecisive small PA above UKC
- TTF
- Staying long-biased above 50MA
- Possible exhausted move getting closer to HHTF UKC but move doesn’t seem long enough to be confidently an exhausted move wait for confirmation to either bias
- Opportunity (if any)
- 18:35
- HHTF
- Getting closer to UKC
- HTF
- Seems the HTF U TC was in effect after all and noted it for my log
- TTF
- TTF R AD moving upwards above 50ma and VWAP
- Opportunity (if any)
- Am hesitant to take any long positions since we are so close to a HHTF target level ie. HHTF UKC
- HHTF
- 19:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- Move back to UKC area
- VWAP moved back into KC
- TTF
- Swing highs closer to each other plus touch of VWAP + BD
- Opportunity (if any)
- No clarity
- 19:35
- HHTF
- Possible PB to 200MACAS
- HTF
- Breach down from UKC
- TTF
- 50MABD but halted above LKC
- Opportunity (if any)
- HTF U TT @ VWAP BD + PB (probably during NY)
- HHTF
- 20:05
- HHTF
- HTF
- TTF
- Opportunity (if any)
- 16:05
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF U TT
- Entry around 57.20
- Targets 56.90
- HTF U TT
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTF U TC
- Entry around 57.30
- Targets 57.60
- Hypo 3 Rotational
- 57.05 — 57.30
Daily Report Card | ||
Date: | 7/30/2019 | |
Weekly Goal | Execute A+ / A setups | |
Combined Score | 87 | |
Process Report Card (10 each) | ||
10 | Session PECS | |
10 | Hypos | |
5 | Market Prep | |
10 | Daily review | |
10 | Progress tow. weekly goal | |
45 | Total | |
Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
100% | 7 | Real-time analysis |
2/2 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) |
1/2 | 5 | Setups taken |
0/2 | 10 | Erroneous Entries |
1/2 | 10 | Erroneous Exits |
42 | total | |
- Weekly Goal
- Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
- Forward test experimental trades
- Review
Trade | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Sizing | Reason to cover | Problem | Proposed solution | |
Session | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
1 | 0 | 1 | (experimental) HTF U TT | 10 | SO | stop too tight | stop too tight | Give more space to develop for a reversal move — logged into PB |
0 | 0 | (experimental) HTF U TT | 10 | Scratched | push back at TTF50MA | - | - | |
2 | 0 | 0 | (experimental) HTF U TC | 10 | scratched | no push back at 50MA | - | - |
3 | 0 | 0 | (experimental) HTF U TT | 10 | Hit 1st Target | - | - | - |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 1 & 2 played out — 100%
- Started session with Hypo 2 and then turned into Hypo 1
- Real-time analysis — 70%
- I was forcing Hypo 1 and did not anticipate the influx of new buyers coming in as part of Hypo 1 taking out my stop (which was too tight or else I would have had more trades in profit)
- This was again a great opportunity to trade a market narrative that I have been working on. This is my first time trading this (with the knowledge of the narrative in mind) so I am not going to be too hard on myself. Happy with my progress in understanding my approach to the market as per my goal.
- I was forcing Hypo 1 and did not anticipate the influx of new buyers coming in as part of Hypo 1 taking out my stop (which was too tight or else I would have had more trades in profit)
- Hypo 1 & 2 played out — 100%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Did well here.
- E: Did well here.
- CS: Did well here.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I understand more about how the relation between my time frames interacts
- Positive(s)
- Did well to stay calm during trades and take my stop
- Did well to not go long while short even though I was very tempted to do so. I can only have one trade idea on directing my trades.
- Negative(s)
- Due to a blue screen of death (BSOD) on my main PC I spent time I would usually write my market prep on fixing the issue. Still not sure if I fixed it but no issues yet. Fingers crossed. This is the reason I wrote my market prep when I would normally start watching the session. Perhaps this later writing of market prep also aided in a clearer view on potential hypos. Sadly, normally don’t have time to do it right before I start watching the session.
- Did not do well on forcing Hypo 1. I should have let MGI direct my approach. As I was acting on hypo1 I saw the signs for hypo 2 and did not shift gears to act on hypo 2 rather to stick it out with trading on Hypo 1. Then when Hypo 1 did come into play I took one trade based on hypo 2 that luckily I scratched and realized my hypo 1 was confirmed and took a trade on that. I’m gonna replay tomorrow as always and log into my playbook.
- One stop I put too tight. Usually have a 15 tick stop and working on an experimental reversal trade I should have put a wider stop because I got in on the front side of the move. When I rewatch the session tomorrow I will decode and log in my playbook if entering on the front side is for me or I should just focus on when the trade is confirmed. My thoughts now suggest the latter. Will see tomorrow.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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