30052019 Thursday — Smart Money up to something

30052019 Thurs­day — Smart Mon­ey up to something

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel?
  • Good. Slept enough.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • May 29th, 2019
  • -5.3M
• EIA report
  • Com­ing out today
  • Fore­cast ‑0.857M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 59.143
      • PVAH 59.115
      • PPOC 58.559
      • PVAL 57.740
      • Low 56.939
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PPOC Area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break the HTF R to the down­side but broke 200MA instead
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Haven’t bro­ken this week’s range yet but the market’s load­ing up to make some move so let’s see what she decides on.

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF200MAPB
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • TTF TT into TTF R bounc­ing off 58.85 area for short/medium term support

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF50MABD
  • Entry 59.10
  • Tar­gets 58.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTFLKCCAS
  • Entry 59.15
  • Tar­gets 59.45, 59.80
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.85 — 59.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:35
    • After AS moved up to 59.70 and we had an exhaust­ed move we see a drop to TTF50MA with pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to LKC which is also HTF VWAP area. I will look to see if there is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move ie. Prev High BD / HTF VWAP BD
    • Drop still look­ing strong.
  • 17:05
    • Drop to TTF LKC and it was look­ing to con­tin­ue and break it but glad I stuck to my rules and didn’t hop on as some buy­ing came in here. 
  • 17:35
    • A/D going on at TTF LKC pos­si­ble rever­sal. Not sure if it’s buy­ers or sell­ers being absorbed. It looks like buy­ers being absorbed and more sell­ing pres­sure could come in on the HTF how­ev­er HHTF is show­ing buy­ing pressure.
  • 18:05
    • TTF and HTF still look­ing bear­ish on the short-term
  • 18:35
    • We dropped below TTF200MA but only slight­ly and no big drop yet. A lot going on here.
    • Mar­ket con­text is smart mon­ey buy­ing in their posi­tions for a long run
  • 19:05
    • Smart mon­ey bring­ing price below TTF200MA to load up on longs
    • Price still slow, spread a lit­tle wider than nor­mal (42/43), stil long on over­all mar­ket, not gonna take a trade until more clar­i­ty + set­up show up
  • 19:35
    • Still no big drop yet

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF VWAP BD
    • TTF
      • TTFLKCBD
      • Entry 10 @ 59.08
    • LTF
      • LTF D TC
  • SL
  • TP
    • 58.88
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 59.14

Dai­ly Report Card

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF50MABD
  • Entry 59.10
  • Tar­gets 58.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTFLKCCAS
  • Entry 59.15
  • Tar­gets 59.45, 59.80
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.85 — 59.30

	Date:	5/30/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	96
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	80%	8	Real-time analy­sis
	8	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0	10	Erro­neous Exits
	48	Total		48

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • I did well here. Took 1 exper­i­men­tal trade.
• Review
  • I noticed that even though my set­up could be com­ing up, I was stalk­ing it, the con­text of the mar­ket was dif­fer­ent. ‘Nor­mal­ly’, we would see a faster drop but that didn’t come. Whole ses­sion has been slow mak­ing me come up with a new trade idea. Today was a good day to learn more about mar­ket structure. 

	Psy­chol­o­gy Journal
P/L ticks	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution	Action
-6	-	-	(Experimental)TTFLKCBD	-	10	NO	cov­ered at small loss because it looked to reverse — note to self: when price cross­es 1.0 SD there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty of a shift in sentiment	Slow PA + cross­ing of 1.0 SD = high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty of shift­ing sentiment	replay event + write in PB	Replay + PB
23	-	-	(Exper­i­men­tal) HTF200MACAS / TTF200MACAR into exhaust­ed move	-	10	YES	TTF200MA cov­ered	-	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 80% — even though we did have a TTF50MABD I visu­al­ized dif­fer­ent­ly + we didn’t exact­ly hit my target
  • Give myself 80% here because even though I caught what was going on I didn’t put enough weight on the cross­ing of the 1.0 SD.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here. Not tired. Doing well. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That I like find­ing out the intri­ca­cies of mar­ket structure. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Remain the sci­en­tist. The more you know, the more you know you don’t know sh*t 🙂 there is no room for pre­dic­tions. Just go with what the mar­ket is show­ing you. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Wor­ry about the out­come. Take high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty trades and work on build­ing your stats. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.