29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

29082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Exit Rules

• Prof­it >5 ticks
• Loss <10 ticks

Rea­son 2 Cover

• Accept­able:
  • Scratch = change in per­spec­tive of nar­ra­tive and closed posi­tion usu­al­ly around entry
  • TP = Take Profit
  • SO = Stopped out
• Unac­cept­able
  • Entry Errors

• FOMO = Fear Of Miss­ing Out = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
• Chas­ing = Chas­ing the mar­ket = 2 times war­rants STOP TRADING
• LOC = Lack of clarity
• Exit Errors

• FOLP = Fear Of Los­ing Prof­its = 2 times war­rants stop trading
• STW = Stop Too Wide = STOP TRADING
• CS = Changed Stop while trad­ing = STOP TRADING

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Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Don’t eat after 6pm
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good even though I didn’t sleep too well. I kept wak­ing up. Don’t feel too tired though so let’s see how it goes lat­er on. To be on the safer side I’ll go wijth lev­el 4. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF shows a 200MABO F and on the longer term bear­ish sen­ti­ment would be warranted
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 56.569
    • PVAH 55.822
    • PPOC 55.634
    • PVAL 55.338
    • Prev. Low 55.230
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • After yesterday’s U TC F we trad­ed back into KC and crossed down 50, how­ev­er again there is small PA going on so there might be a shift in sen­ti­ment although I think a con­tin­u­a­tion down would be more probable
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • AS con­tin­ued a DT that found sup­port at 55.40 and has been bounc­ing off this lev­el pos­si­bly to lat­er on break down this same lev­el. Also when encoun­ter­ing 50 we seem to have a rejec­tion going on there. That said 55.40 is still giv­ing sup­port and we might have a move up before gain­ing momen­tum to BD from this level

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF 50MABO F / CAR
  • Entry around 55.50
  • Tar­gets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.85
  • Tar­gets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF LKCCAS
  • Entry around 55.30
  • Tar­gets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
• Hypo 4 Rotational
  • 55.35 — 55.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
    • Did I stay open to MGI?
    • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
  • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
    • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
    • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • It looks like LKC 2.0 SD is pro­vid­ing sup­port and we might see a run to Hypo 1 play­ing out
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • For now things are going as expect­ed. There’s a pos­si­ble S‑Line form­ing so will trade off that lev­el if there is con­fir­ma­tion oth­er­wise wait for the BD
    • Bias
      • Long short term, short medium/long term
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Pos­si­ble TTF R S‑line form­ing that could set­up for a BD in line with Hypo 1 
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Long if S‑Line CAS 
        • Short with S‑Line BD
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Looks like a 50MABO
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • There seems to be no F and we are con­tin­u­ing higher
    • Bias
      • If PA stays above TTF TL2 than I remain long, if under switch to short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • 50MABO pos­si­ble move to UKC 
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • S‑Line 2 CAS for long, BD+PB for short
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • 50MABO to pos­si­bly UKC
    • TTF
      • What clues are in align­ment with MN?
        • PA stayed above VWAP so long-biased
    • Bias
      • Long until we break down from TTF VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Go long near TTF VWAP if LTF confirms
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Long: TTF U TC VWAP
        • Short: TTF VWAP BD
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Some loss in momen­tum above 1.0 SD pos­si­ble reversal
    • TTF
      • What should have hap­pened in align­ment with MN?
        • PA still above VWAP but  LTF showed signs of weak­ness. Will need to wait for a BD from VWAP to con­sid­er going short in this market
    • Bias
      • Short below VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Do you have clarity?
        • Depends if we can break VWAP
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • VWAP BD+PB

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF 50MABO F / CAR
  • Entry around 55.50
  • Tar­gets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
• Hypo 2 Short
  • HTF UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.85
  • Tar­gets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
• Hypo 3 Long
  • HTF LKCCAS
  • Entry around 55.30
  • Tar­gets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
• Hypo 4 Rotational
  • 55.35 — 55.90

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/29/2019
Week­ly Goal	Align with mar­ket narrative
Com­bined Score	80
Progress towards week­ly goal (20 points)
	5	Point 1
	10	Point 2
	15	Total
Process Report Card (10 each)
	7	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	35	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
2/2	5	Setups Iden­ti­fied
2/2	5	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	30	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • I only trade in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive (10 points)
    • Did I stay open to MGI?
      • I thought I did but still got stopped out 4 times
    • Did MGI con­firm my mar­ket narrative?
      • I real­ize that when there is a point of inter­est on the HHTF PA does not trade accord­ing to the ‘same rules’ as oth­er­wise. Next time I will take this into con­sid­er­a­tion and size down.
  • I will use appro­pri­ate siz­ing (10 points)
    • Cut siz­ing in half after 2 con­sec­u­tive stops
      • I had a win in between. After 4 stops I was just not feel­ing in line with the mar­ket and hav­ing almost hit my DLL I quit for the day. Nor­mal­ly, I’d stay in front of the screens but need some time away from the screens. Per­haps take tomor­row off as well to regroup over the week­end and come back next week. The whole week I was kin­da off and although I did fac­tor that into my trad­ing I might have under­es­ti­mat­ed my men­tal well-being 
    • Take a 10 minute break after 3 con­sec­u­tive stops
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
-11.4	1	1	0	0	HTF 50MABO F	25	SO	Stopped Out
-9.6	2	2	0	0	Exper­i­men­tal	5	SO	Learn­ing how to take my stops
3.3	3	3	0	0	TTF U TC	25	TP1	Hit 1st Target
-14.2	4	4	0	0	HTF UKC CAR	25	SO	Stopped Out
-15.8	5	5	0	0	HTF	25	SO	Stopped Out

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 80%
    • Did OK
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • 50%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here although this week I did not quite sleep as well
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Thought I did well here but I caught myself ‘want­i­ng’ to make mis­takes and decid­ed to call it a day.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • That PA is very dif­fer­ent when near a HHTF POI and this is some­thing I have to either get bet­ter or stay away from. Will record this into my play­book and decide later.
• Positive(s)
  • Quit after I felt off and not real­ly ‘into’ it know­ing that if I con­tin­ue I might just force myself into mak­ing more mistakes
  • Not feel­ing sor­ry for myself. I know I shine in cer­tain sit­u­a­tions, today was just not one of them. All good. 
• Negative(s)
  • Not haven tak­en into account the HHTF POI as much
  • Should have decreased my siz­ing to allow for more mis­takes on a small­er scale. Lis­tened to FuturesTrader71 talk­ing about how when you’re not per­form­ing well to trade small­er so that you can trade as much as you can before hit­ting DLL. adding this to my trad­ing rules. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.