29 Aug 29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
29082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- R = Range
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- HHTF = Higher High Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
- AD = Accumulation Distribution
Exit Rules
- Profit >5 ticks
- Loss <10 ticks
Reason 2 Cover
- Acceptable:
- Scratch = change in perspective of narrative and closed position usually around entry
- TP = Take Profit
- SO = Stopped out
- Unacceptable
- Entry Errors
- FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out = 2 times warrants STOP TRADING
- Chasing = Chasing the market = 2 times warrants STOP TRADING
- LOC = Lack of clarity
- Exit Errors
- FOLP = Fear Of Losing Profits = 2 times warrants stop trading
- STW = Stop Too Wide = STOP TRADING
- CS = Changed Stop while trading = STOP TRADING
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Health review
- Weekly goal
- Don’t eat after 6pm
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insufficient sleep?
- I feel good even though I didn’t sleep too well. I kept waking up. Don’t feel too tired though so let’s see how it goes later on. To be on the safer side I’ll go wijth level 4.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quarter position 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full position = 1st 50 2nd 10
- 4= half position = 1st 25 2nd 5
Market Prep
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HHTF
- What is the market narrative?
- HHTF shows a 200MABO F and on the longer term bearish sentiment would be warranted
- What is the market narrative?
- HTF
- Levels
- Prev. High 56.569
- PVAH 55.822
- PPOC 55.634
- PVAL 55.338
- Prev. Low 55.230
- What is the market narrative and bias?
- After yesterday’s U TC F we traded back into KC and crossed down 50, however again there is small PA going on so there might be a shift in sentiment although I think a continuation down would be more probable
- Levels
- TTF
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
- AS continued a DT that found support at 55.40 and has been bouncing off this level possibly to later on break down this same level. Also when encountering 50 we seem to have a rejection going on there. That said 55.40 is still giving support and we might have a move up before gaining momentum to BD from this level
- Does the Asian session show clues that align with market narrative?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF 50MABO F / CAR
- Entry around 55.50
- Targets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF UKCCAR
- Entry around 55.85
- Targets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
- Hypo 3 Long
- HTF LKCCAS
- Entry around 55.30
- Targets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
- Hypo 4 Rotational
- 55.35 — 55.90
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- I only trade in alignment with market narrative (10 points)
- Did I stay open to MGI?
- Did MGI confirm my market narrative?
- I will use appropriate sizing (10 points)
- Cut sizing in half after 2 consecutive stops
- Take a 10 minute break after 3 consecutive stops
- I only trade in alignment with market narrative (10 points)
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 15:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- It looks like LKC 2.0 SD is providing support and we might see a run to Hypo 1 playing out
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- For now things are going as expected. There’s a possible S‑Line forming so will trade off that level if there is confirmation otherwise wait for the BD
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- Bias
- Long short term, short medium/long term
- Opportunity (if any)
- Do you have clarity?
- Possible TTF R S‑line forming that could setup for a BD in line with Hypo 1
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- Long if S‑Line CAS
- Short with S‑Line BD
- Do you have clarity?
- HTF
- 16:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Looks like a 50MABO
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- There seems to be no F and we are continuing higher
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- Bias
- If PA stays above TTF TL2 than I remain long, if under switch to short
- Opportunity (if any)
- Do you have clarity?
- 50MABO possible move to UKC
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- S‑Line 2 CAS for long, BD+PB for short
- Do you have clarity?
- HTF
- 17:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- 50MABO to possibly UKC
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- What clues are in alignment with MN?
- PA stayed above VWAP so long-biased
- What clues are in alignment with MN?
- Bias
- Long until we break down from TTF VWAP
- Opportunity (if any)
- Do you have clarity?
- Go long near TTF VWAP if LTF confirms
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- Long: TTF U TC VWAP
- Short: TTF VWAP BD
- Do you have clarity?
- HTF
- 18:05
- HTF
- What is the market narrative?
- Some loss in momentum above 1.0 SD possible reversal
- What is the market narrative?
- TTF
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- PA still above VWAP but LTF showed signs of weakness. Will need to wait for a BD from VWAP to consider going short in this market
- What should have happened in alignment with MN?
- Bias
- Short below VWAP
- Opportunity (if any)
- Do you have clarity?
- Depends if we can break VWAP
- What setup am I going to stalk?
- VWAP BD+PB
- Do you have clarity?
- HTF
- 15:05
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- HTF 50MABO F / CAR
- Entry around 55.50
- Targets 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
- Hypo 2 Short
- HTF UKCCAR
- Entry around 55.85
- Targets 55.55, 55.25, 54.90, 54.70
- Hypo 3 Long
- HTF LKCCAS
- Entry around 55.30
- Targets 55.50, 55.70, 55.90
- Hypo 4 Rotational
- 55.35 — 55.90
Daily Report Card | ||
Date: | 8/29/2019 | |
Weekly Goal | Align with market narrative | |
Combined Score | 80 | |
Progress towards weekly goal (20 points) | ||
5 | Point 1 | |
10 | Point 2 | |
15 | Total | |
Process Report Card (10 each) | ||
7 | Session PECS | |
8 | Hypos | |
10 | Market Prep | |
10 | Daily review | |
35 | Total | |
Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
2/2 | 5 | Setups Identified |
2/2 | 5 | Setups taken |
0/2 | 10 | Erroneous Entries |
0/2 | 10 | Erroneous Exits |
30 | total | |
- Weekly Goal
- I only trade in alignment with market narrative (10 points)
- Did I stay open to MGI?
- I thought I did but still got stopped out 4 times
- Did MGI confirm my market narrative?
- I realize that when there is a point of interest on the HHTF PA does not trade according to the ‘same rules’ as otherwise. Next time I will take this into consideration and size down.
- Did I stay open to MGI?
- I will use appropriate sizing (10 points)
- Cut sizing in half after 2 consecutive stops
- I had a win in between. After 4 stops I was just not feeling in line with the market and having almost hit my DLL I quit for the day. Normally, I’d stay in front of the screens but need some time away from the screens. Perhaps take tomorrow off as well to regroup over the weekend and come back next week. The whole week I was kinda off and although I did factor that into my trading I might have underestimated my mental well-being
- Take a 10 minute break after 3 consecutive stops
- Cut sizing in half after 2 consecutive stops
- I only trade in alignment with market narrative (10 points)
- Review
P/L ticks | Trade Idea | Pos. | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Size | Reason to cover | |
-11.4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | HTF 50MABO F | 25 | SO | Stopped Out |
-9.6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Experimental | 5 | SO | Learning how to take my stops |
3.3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | TTF U TC | 25 | TP1 | Hit 1st Target |
-14.2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | HTF UKC CAR | 25 | SO | Stopped Out |
-15.8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | HTF | 25 | SO | Stopped Out |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 2 — 80%
- Did OK
- Real-time analysis
- 50%
- Hypo 2 — 80%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Did well here although this week I did not quite sleep as well
- E: Did well here
- CS: Thought I did well here but I caught myself ‘wanting’ to make mistakes and decided to call it a day.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- That PA is very different when near a HHTF POI and this is something I have to either get better or stay away from. Will record this into my playbook and decide later.
- Positive(s)
- Quit after I felt off and not really ‘into’ it knowing that if I continue I might just force myself into making more mistakes
- Not feeling sorry for myself. I know I shine in certain situations, today was just not one of them. All good.
- Negative(s)
- Not haven taken into account the HHTF POI as much
- Should have decreased my sizing to allow for more mistakes on a smaller scale. Listened to FuturesTrader71 talking about how when you’re not performing well to trade smaller so that you can trade as much as you can before hitting DLL. adding this to my trading rules.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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