29072019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

29072019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Per­form health plan and dai­ly tasks
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. I slept a lot to try and counter the lack of qual­i­ty sleep over the weekend.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion (1st = 10, 2nd = 2) 4= half posi­tion (1st = 25, 2nd = 5) 5= full posi­tion (1st = 50, 2nd = 10)
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Tomor­row
• EIA report
  • Wednes­day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • HHTF not quite in R but hit­ting over­bought over­sold areas pos­si­ble AD going on on the even high­er time frames. PA is just below the 50MA area so nor­mal­ly would sug­gest a short bias how­ev­er with a lot of AD going on in pre­vi­ous days as part of the HHTF D TT back into the KC I believe that it is pos­si­ble this down­ward bias is used for more AD and could see a move up instead. In short, no clear bias on the HHTF at the moment but would give a small nod to the upside from here.
  • Also small PA and no clear rejec­tion of 50MA enhances a long bias but since this time frame is too far away, we might see more down­side on the low­er time frames first.
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 56.584
    • PVAH 56.398
    • PPOC 56.216
    • PVAL 55.997
    • Prev. Low 55.702
  • HTF R seems to be in effect and PA just below VWAP so would have to wait for a move to either HTF LKC or UKC. No clear bias yet. 
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS has trad­ed into a HTF R squeeze with a lot of AD at the 2nd touch of TTF LKC just below 50 and 200MA. Call for BO?
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HHTF 50MABO attempt

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF R LKCCAS
  • Entry around 55.90
  • Tar­gets 56.20, 56.35, extend­ed 56.55
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MABOF
  • Entry around 56.10
  • Tar­gets 55.85
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 56.15
  • Tar­gets 56.35, 56.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:05
    • HHTF
      • Small PA below VWAP could be signs of AD
    • HTF
      • PA around 50MA look­ing for poten­tial LKCCAS
    • TTF
      • Lots of TTF R AD going on before Lon­don open which looks like bull­ish AD.
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Still unclear but a run down to HTF R LKCCAS could be a good nar­ra­tive for a poten­tial setup
  • 15:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD at TTF LKC pos­si­ble CAS into BO
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • TTF200MABO(F)
      • Wait for PB to enter
  • 16:05
    • HHTF
      • Mov­ing away from 50MA per­haps a move down to 2.0 SD
    • HTF
      • Move from 2.0 SD to 50MACAR
    • TTF
      • TTF200MABO attempt into CAR which result­ed in big­ger AD pat­terns on TTF
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Pos­si­ble HTF R 50MABO
  • 16:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF R Squeeze AD going on no clear sign of mar­ket direc­tion yet
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD going on after we reject­ed 200MA once but might still set up for a BO
        • Gonna wait for a CAS or BO
          • BO trade the PB
          • CAS look for pos­si­ble entry short how­ev­er might be too late for entry. Still learn­ing more about the HTF R 50MA area nar­ra­tive and how it trans­lates into my TTF.
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • TTF R 200MABO
      • TTF R UKCCAR
  • 17:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF R 50MABO to 200MA
    • TTF
      • TTF R 200MA BO to over­bought posi­tion how­ev­er move could be strong and see con­tin­u­a­tion to the move.
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • PB to TTF UKC how­ev­er might not have enough room left for the move to hap­pen though. The big­ger move is to be had with a rever­sal at this point. I’m gonna wait for con­fir­ma­tion on the HTF first. And or a LTF VWAPBD + PB.
  • 17:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF200MACAR but per­haps only for the short-term cause we might have a 50MABO + PB going on at the moment
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought is pos­si­bly in the mak­ing. Took a short at the LTF U TT VWAPBD + PB, tar­gets TTF200MA, TTF LKC
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • TTF R Over­bought still valid
  • 18:05
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • PA above 2.0 SD but no 200MABO yet how­ev­er still look­ing likely
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought has not reversed yet and PA is slow­ly creep­ing up and is look­ing more bull­ish and am expect­ing to get stopped out
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF R 50MABO + PB to UKC (best entry missed)
        • As I’m writ­ing this a big drop to HTF 2.0 SD again +breach more biased towards short side
  • 18:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF R 200MACAR after 50MABO failed to con­tin­ue to UKC
    • TTF
      • TTF R Overbought
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Unclear yet
  • 19:05
    • HHTF
      • Small PA lat­er­al move above 1.0 SD
    • HTF
      • HTF R squeeze — momen­tum move 50MABO to failed con­tin­u­a­tion and PA dropped back to 2.0 SD on the down­side. HTF R VWAP bound.
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought move down to LKC but no signs of con­tin­u­a­tion (yet)
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Gonna sit the rest out but there could be a TTF200MABD + PB to con­tin­ue a move down to HTF LKC
  • 19:35
    • HHTF
    • HTF
      • HTF R squeeze low­er 2.0 SD CAS
    • TTF
      • TTF R LKCCAS into small PA 200MABO to pos­si­bly UKCCAR again
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Unclear 

Dai­ly Report Card

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	7/29/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	96
Process Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS
	9	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	47	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	9	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
0/2	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	49	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
Ses­sion	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	0	0	TTF R UKCCAS	10	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
0	0	10	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
2	0	0	TTF R Overbought	10	Scratched	scratched after a big bull­ish rejec­tion @ 200MACAS	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 90%
    • Did OK here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 90%
    • Did OK here.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: I slept long enough.
  • E: DId well here.
  • CS: Did OK here although I had anoth­er dip after a meal. Scrapped that from my diet dur­ing trading.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Learned more about mar­ket nar­ra­tive of one of my setups
• Positive(s)
  • Had the oppor­tu­ni­ty to play a mar­ket sce­nario and learn from it. Even though I lost both setups the mar­ket still went in my favor had I not been stopped out. Logged the set­up and will review for future reference. 
  • Kept a clear head and took trades based on pre­de­ter­mined entries and even though I saw the mar­ket move in my favor didn’t chase it.
• Negative(s)
  • Should have been more care­ful with my meal of choice.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.