28052019 Tuesday — A lot of A/D going on

28 May 28052019 Tuesday — A lot of A/D going on

28052019 Tues­day — A lot of A/D going on

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
    • Skip a meal
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good. Slept fair­ly enough.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Next release Wednes­day, May 29th, 2019
• EIA report
  • Next release Thurs­day, May 30th, 2019

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 59.504
      • PVAH 58.725
      • PPOC 58.415
      • PVAL 58.243
      • Low 58.141
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev High area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t drop to bot­tom of the HTF KC, pos­si­ble HTF reversal
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF R still in effect

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Prev High CAS / HTF UT
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • HTF show­ing some A/D above UKC, TTF R in effect 

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF UT
  • Entry around 59.25
  • Tar­gets 60.25, 61.05
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 59.25
  • Tar­gets 59.05, 58.75, 58.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Pos­si­ble TTF TC oppor­tu­ni­ty but we dropped to 200MA so am not too cer­tain. Gonna wait for LTF50MA + PB for pos­si­ble entry.
    • Spread is still wide at 48/49
  • 16:35
    • Can’t make up what’s going on so I think there’s some­thing going on on the HHTF so I will stay out until clar­i­ty sets in.
  • 17:05
    • Lot of wicks between TTF50MA and 200MA and then what looked like a pos­si­ble TTF200MABD we shot up instead. Gonna stay out until more clar­i­ty sets in. 
    • Pos­si­ble LTF R going on
  • 17:35
    • HTF R and TTF R in effect but a lot of A/D going on still so not much clarity
  • 18:05
    • Touched TTFUKC and look­ing to reverse
  • 18:35
    • Dropped to TTF50MA and made a PB to LTF50MA indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the DT BD from TTF50MA and 200MA
  • 19:05
    • No con­tin­u­a­tion on the DT

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R drop top 50MA
    • TTF
      • TTF D TC
      • Entry 2 at 58.995
    • LTF
      • LTF50MABD + PB
  • SL
    • 59.071
  • TP
    • 58.826
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 59.013 because price didn’t drop and reversed on high momen­tum. Glad I did since price end­ed up cross­ing back up over TTF50MA.

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R above VWAP
    • TTF
      • TTF R 200MAPB
      • Entry 2 @ 59.045
    • LTF
      • LTF D TC
  • SL
    • 59.156
  • TP
    • 58.886
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • SO @ 59.162

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF R
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MAPB
      • Entry 2 @ 59.136
    • LTF
      • LTF R 50MACAR
  • SL
    • 59.163
  • TP
    • 58.906
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered in prof­it @ 59.071 @ LTF LKC

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (Not much clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF UT
  • Entry around 59.25
  • Tar­gets 60.25, 61.05
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTFUKCCAR
  • Entry around 59.25
  • Tar­gets 59.05, 58.75, 58.50

	Date:	5/28/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	80
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	90%	9	Real-time analy­sis
	6	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	1	0	Erro­neous Entries
	7	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0	10	Erro­neous Exits
	41	Total		39

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
    • Did well here but at the same time try­ing out exper­i­men­tal trades with small­er sizing
• Review
  • Took one set­up but got in too late because price action that pre­ced­ed was not mak­ing me feel con­fi­dent in tak­ing the set­up so wait­ed for anoth­er point of con­fir­ma­tion before get­ting in. Since I wasn’t as con­fi­dent in the move I put on ⅕ of my nor­mal siz­ing. Scratched it because of high momen­tum on reversal. 
  • The next 2 trades were experimental
    • I have been play­ing around with this set­up when­ev­er the HTF is in A/D so took 2 trades on ⅕ on nor­mal siz­ing as well. One got stopped out the oth­er hit my tar­get. I will replay this and write it up into my playbook.

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	0	TTF TC	Got in too late	2	NO	high momen­tum on rever­sal so scratched it	The rea­son I got in too late is because of the long wicked can­dles before my set­up came into play. Because of this I took a small­er than nor­mal posi­tion and wait­ed for a bit more con­fir­ma­tion. Then scratched it as soon as it went against me.	When there’s a messy chart it means prob­a­bly that some­thing is going on on the HHTF and thus be more care­ful. Stay out until there is more clar­i­ty and trade smaller.
test	test	TTF R 200MAPB / LTF R D TC	-	2	SO	Stopped out	SO @ TTF50MA	-
test	test	TTF R 50MAPB / LTF R 50MACAR	-	2	YES	Hit tar­get	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 60% — already stat­ed that I had less clar­i­ty today
  • Real-time analy­sis I did OK. Even though I saw that ‘some­thing was up’ in the mar­ket today I choose to take my exper­i­men­tal trades and I feel that I could have done it a lit­tle bet­ter. I am still learn­ing how to trade in these sit­u­a­tions so I will have to prac­tice more. I will replay the ses­sion and take notes for my PB.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Felt tired even though I slept enough. Will track more in my jour­nal. The rest was good. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Con­firm­ing more and more on what mar­ket struc­ture works for my setups and which not. Even though the lat­ter I have a set­up that looks promis­ing but still needs some work. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Have fun experimenting.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Think­ing that I need to be trad­ing when the mar­ket is obvi­ous­ly show­ing me that my set­up won’t work here. I feel now that I am more con­fi­dent in my setups they don’t show up (any)more. I just need to be patient and in the mean­while exper­i­ment with my TTF R setups.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.