27 Jun 27062019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
27062019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Follow health plan
- How do you feel? Have you recently had a break of daily routine (like a trip)?
- I feel good. Have slept a lot even though I had some trouble falling asleep but feel good.
- How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half position sizing 4/5 = full position
- 5
Market Prep
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Latest Release Jun 25, 2019
- Actual ‑7.550M
- Previous ‑0.812M
- EIA report
- Latest Release Jun 26, 2019
- Actual ‑12.788M
- Forecast ‑2.540M
- Previous ‑3.106M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- High 59.883
- PVAH 59.285
- PPOC 58.859
- PVAL 58.683
- Low 58.636
- Where is the LIS?
- Prev. Low area
- What didn’t happen?
- We didn’t break HHTF VWAP and have not made a HHTF PB (yet)
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We are still in an imbalance however PA can’t sustain clean UT on HTF probably due to DTF200MA, possible correction coming on HTF (HHTF Mean reversion to VWAP)
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
- Define context
- TTF
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- HTFLKCCAS
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- We had a HTFLKCCAS and might test this level later on again
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- TTFLKCBD
- Entry around 58.95
- Targets 58.70, 58.25
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTFLKCCAS
- Entry around 58.80
- Targets 59.50
- Hypo 3 Rotational 58.60 — 59.40
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Have patience in only taking A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- After open we had a TTFLKCCAS and then rally to UKC possible UKCBO however 200MA in the way, we might be up for another TTF R day
- 16:35
- I think that because due to DTF POI PA is somewhat irrational and I should be extra careful today. Only with real clarity should I take my next trade.
- 17:05
- Messy TTF R in effect, HTF R Squeeze hugging the 50MA
- 17:35
- Messy TTF R in effect, HTF R Squeeze hugging the 50MA, possible BD to HTF LKC, I’d expect another swing to LH before a big drop to HTF LKC though
- 18:05
- Drop to HTFLKC
- 18:35
- Now the question is will we find support at HTFLKC or will we make a run for HTF200MA to CAS
- 19:05
- Bounce off HTFLKC with possible test of TTF VWAP still very bearish outlook although the bounce happened at the HHTF VWAP so potential bulls coming in. No clarity so no trades.
- 19:35
- 16:05
Daily Report Card
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- TTFLKCBD
- Entry around 58.95
- Targets 58.70, 58.25
- Hypo 2 Long
- HTFLKCCAS
- Entry around 58.80
- Targets 59.50
- Hypo 3 Rotational 58.60 — 59.40
Date: | 6/27/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT) | |||
Combined Score | 96 | |||||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | |||||
8 | Session PECS | 100% | 10 | Real-time analysis | ||
8 | Hypos | 4/4 | 10 | Setups Identified (inc. TEST) | ||
10 | Trading the process | 4/4 | 10 | Setups taken | ||
10 | Daily review | 0/4 | 10 | Erroneous Entries | ||
10 | Progress tow. weekly goal | 0/4 | 10 | Erroneous Exits | ||
46 | Total | 50 | ||||
- Weekly Goal
- Have patience in only taking A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to analyze later but be open to experiment with TTF R setups
- Review
P/L ticks | Trade | Entry Errors | Exit Errors | Type Trade | Sizing | Reason to cover | Problem | Proposed solution | |
-10.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | (Experimental) TTF R LKCCAS | 1 | SO | dropped too far below TTFLKC | - | - |
-9.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | (Experimental) TTFLKCBD | 1 | SO | re-entered LKC | - | - |
-1.3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | (Experimental) TTF R LKCCAS | 1 | Scratched | Loss of momentum at TTF VWAP possibly sellers coming in | - | - |
5.4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | (Experimental) TTF R LKCCAS | 1 | Scratched | buyers drying up at TTF VWAP no momentum to BO | - | - |
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo 3 — 80%
- Still learning on calling these in the hypos. Getting slightly better at it. Progress. Not perfection.
- Real-time analysis
- Did well here
- Hypo 3 — 80%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- P: Slept enough. Got up early. Did well here.
- E: Did well here until the end. I got a phone call that threw me off so did not think about taking any more trades. Did well to decide that.
- CS: Did well here.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I should limit my experimental trades as well. Was thinking more on this recently. I will analyze the trades I already took and decide which one(s) to focus on.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Stay focused on building my knowledge as well as PB
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Think I have to take trades. I’ve been doing well here but I think I should take less experimental trades as well. Be more selective.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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