26062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

26062019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat only 2 meals
  • Read 30 min before bed
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)?
  • I feel good but not as sharp as I could be I guess.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half posi­tion siz­ing 4/5 = full position
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release    Jun 25, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑7.550M
  • Pre­vi­ous        ‑0.812M
• EIA report
  • Today
  • Fore­cast         ‑2.540M 

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    58.803
      • PVAH    58.131
      • PPOC    57.793
      • PVAL    57.617
      • Low    57.187
    • Where is the LIS?
      • Prev. high area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No HHTF UT BD although loss of momen­tum still bull­ish but keep an eye out for a HHTF PB to 200MACAS or poten­tial­ly 200MABD
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Pos­si­ble exhaus­tion of imbal­ance on HTF/HHTF

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTFUKCCAR to TTF50MABD
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS has shown signs of loss in momen­tum above UKC so bear­ish on short term into pos­si­ble HTFUKCCAS

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.80
  • Tar­gets 59.05, 59.35, 60.30
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 58.70
  • Tar­gets 58.50, 58.30
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTFUKCBO
  • Entry around 59.05
  • Tar­gets 59.35, 60.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups on 2nd account. Earn the right to size up. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Drop to TTFLKC pos­si­ble BD or CAS, LTF R in effect after a DT, at HTF UKC pos­si­ble BD
  • 16:35
    • I feel like forc­ing a trade which is nev­er good but I do well in con­tain­ing myself. I will not trade just because I feel like it. 
    • Spread is 44 and PA seems a bit slug­gish, TTF shows a pos­si­ble TTFUKCBD but has not pulled through on move yet. HTF, shows enough space for it to devel­op although we halt­ed after touch­ing 2.0SD and TTF is show­ing not too much space for it to run (200MA is in the way)
  • 17:05
    • We are slow­ly creep­ing down to TTF200MA as part of a HHTF mean rever­sion after a poten­tial exhaust­ed move, HTFUKCCAR con­firms this.
  • 17:35
    • TTF200MACAS for now, the mar­ket has not made a move yet
  • 18:05
    • Still no move yet, no clar­i­ty on a pos­si­ble move
  • 18:35
    • Still no move yet, no clar­i­ty on a pos­si­ble move
  • 19:05
    • Anoth­er TTF200MACAS

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.80
  • Tar­gets 59.05, 59.35, 60.30
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTFLKCBD
  • Entry around 58.70
  • Tar­gets 58.50, 58.30
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTFUKCBO
  • Entry around 59.05
  • Tar­gets 59.35, 60.30

	Date:	6/26/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	90
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	5	Hypos	2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/2	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	45	Total		45

• Week­ly Goal
  • Have patience in only tak­ing A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups on 2nd account. Earn the right to size up. 
    • Did well here.
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
0.7	1	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) LTF D TT inside LKC	1	Scratched	Loss of momen­tum at TTF VWAP pos­si­bly sell­ers com­ing in	-	-
-5.2	2	1	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTFLKCCAR	1	Scratched	sell­ers dry­ing up at TTFLKC	Got in too soon	When momen­tum is high wait for anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion before get­ting in
0.6	3	0	0	(Exper­i­men­tal) TTFLKCCAR	1	Scratched	sell­ers dry­ing up at TTFLKC	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 50%
    • We didn’t have a BD but rather rotat­ed around this area
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • Did well here. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Feel­ing bet­ter than yes­ter­day and the day before. Slept a lot + I have new health goals I am fol­low­ing to improve my sleep­ing rou­tine. Thanks Edward.
  • E: Did well here.
  • CS: Did well here.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Report release days don’t often give good opportunities.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be the sci­en­tist and take notes for my PB. Defin­ing cir­cum­stances that you can’t trade is also very valu­able information. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Think­ing I have to trade every­thing. I am up a lit­tle for the month and just because the month is almost over doesn’t mean I should go out look­ing for ‘oppor­tu­ni­ties’ the mar­ket giveth when­ev­er it wants, but more than not, taketh 🙂 be care­ful, be patient.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.