24052019 Friday — Lot of accumulation / distribution going on

24052019 Fri­day — Lot of accu­mu­la­tion / dis­tri­b­u­tion going on

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good after I just took a nap but feel­ing more tired these last few days
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release Tues­day, May 21, 2019
  • Actu­al 2.400M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.600M
  • Pre­vi­ous 8.600M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release Wednes­day, May 22, 2019
  • Actu­al 4.740M
  • Fore­cast ‑0.599M
  • Pre­vi­ous 5.431M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 61.397
      • PVAH 61.397
      • PPOC 61.024
      • PVAL 58.178
      • Low 57.324
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAL area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We failed to hold the 60.50 area
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Imbal­ance on mul­ti­ple time frames

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • PVALBD or PVALCAS
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Short-term UT with poten­tial hyper­bol­ic move with con­se­quent fail­ure to make new highs indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble loss in momen­tum and pos­si­ble sign of rever­sal on the short to medi­um term. Let’s wait and see how this unfolds

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.70
  • Tar­gets 58.20, 57.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • PVALCAS / HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.25
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 59.30
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.30 — 58.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:05
    • TTF A/D going below 50MA pos­si­ble move to 200MA
  • 15:35
    • Pos­si­ble TTF R day
  • 16:05
    • TTF R 50MABO
  • 16:35
    • LTF UT still in effect how­ev­er still below TTFUKC, A/D still going on, mar­ket has not made its move yet
  • 17:05
    • TTF A/D con­tin­u­ing, doji can­dle at TTF VWAP 50MA area, pos­si­ble signs look­ing bull­ish even though HTF looks bear­ish still
  • 17:35
    • Still A/D going on, no move­ment by mar­ket yet
  • 18:05
    • A/D
  • 18:35
    • A/D
  • 19:05
    • A/D

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF D TC — LKC VWAP area
    • TTF
      • TTF NT — Looked like a poten­tial dou­ble top and then ducked under VWAP and I went short
      • Entry 10 @ 58.537
    • LTF
      • LTF200MACAR duck under 50MA
  • SL
    • 58.585
  • TP
    • 58.445
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Scratched at 58.529 when price didn’t drop further 

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 58.70
  • Tar­gets 58.20, 57.70
• Hypo 2 Long
  • PVALCAS / HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 58.25
  • Tar­gets 58.70, 59.30
• Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 58.30 — 58.70

	Date:	5/24/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	96
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	9	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	7	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied
	10	Trad­ing the process	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	0	10	Erro­neous Exits
	46	Total		50

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze later
• Review
  • Only took one trade just before open because my set­up came up. Quick­ly scratched. The rest of the ses­sion has been a lot of A/D and no oppor­tu­ni­ties for me today. 

Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Mis­takes (if any)	Siz­ing	Hit Tar­get?	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
0	0	TTF NT	-	10	NO	scratched because price reversed at LKC	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 70% I’m new to the whole rota­tion­al game so I’m not sure if this is actu­al­ly cor­rect. I will learn more about it. 
  • Real-time analy­sis was great. 
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Bet­ter than yes­ter­day. Did well here. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • When there’s no set­up, there’s no trade!
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Be patient and wait for setups.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Try and see pat­terns in every­thing. Some­times the mar­ket just doesn’t wan­na offer you any­thing and that’s OK.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.