23072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

23072019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • I did not get enough sleep over the week­end so did not trade yes­ter­day and today I will take it easy. 
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel OK. Def­i­nite­ly need anoth­er day top recoup. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

• API report
  • Today 
• EIA report
  • Tomor­row

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • Pos­si­ble Over­sold are form­ing D TT @ 200MA
• HTF
  • Prev. High 57.010
  • PVAH 56.440
  • PPOC 56.258
  • PVAL 56.016
  • Prev. Low 55.767
• TTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Small PA pos­si­ble HTF apex below 200MA, TTF crossed over 200MA but PA still with­in prev. VA
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • HTF200MABO
    • HTFLKCCAS

Trade Idea (less clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS into U NT
  • Entry around 56.25
  • Tar­gets 56.40, .55, .70, .95
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MABD
    • Entry around 56.15
    • Tar­gets 56.-, 55.80
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 56 — 56.40

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • We had a HTF200MACAR just before open
    • TTF Over­bought before open into TTF R
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF50MABO + PB
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • Poten­tial 50MABO
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD long-bod­ied can­dles looks like mar­ket is load­ing up for pos­si­ble HTF50MABO?
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF50MABO + PB
        • 1st effort — scratched
        • still valid oppor­tu­ni­ty — TTF R still valid
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • Still above VWAP no rea­son to believe HTF50MA is not in effect anymore
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD test­ing 200MA right now if there is a BD I will stop out
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Still HTF50MABO attempt
      • 2nd effort in process, no SO yet, if there is fail­ure then we might have a dou­ble touch HTF200MACAR mean­ing we could see a big­ger move to pos­si­bly HTFLKC
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • HTF R with­in SD
    • TTF
      • TTF R still in process no clear signs on mar­ket direc­tion just yet
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • SO on HTF50MABO
      • Pos­si­ble HTF50MACAR to LKC, wait­ing for TTFLKCBD to start a TTF D NT or TC
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • Pos­si­ble HTF200MACAR  and PA reject­ing 50MA
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MA CAR into big drop from 200MA pos­si­ble BD 
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF50MACAR with TTF R D NT
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • HTF show­ing bear­ish signs espe­cial­ly after the TTF50MACAR how­ev­er we are still with­in TTF R
    • TTF
      • TTF R still in effect had a 50MACAR but still with­in bounds
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • HTF50MACAR with TTF R D NT through LKC BD
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • Drop to HTF LKC as part of HTF R 50MACAR
    • TTF
      • TTF R 50MACAR to LKC BD
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • Even though PA dropped to HTF LKC in a very steep decline it is pos­si­ble that there is a rever­sal com­ing up. Rea­son for think­ing this is that VWAP is still above LKC and before we could have a TC we would need the VWAP to drop further

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (less clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • TTF200MACAS into U NT
  • Entry around 56.25
  • Tar­gets 56.40, .55, .70, .95
• Hypo 2 Short
  • TTF200MABD
    • Entry around 56.15
    • Tar­gets 56.-, 55.80
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 56 — 56.40

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	7/23/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	88
Process Report Card (10 each)
	7	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	8	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	43	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
2/2	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/2	10	Setups tak­en
1/2	5	Erro­neous Entries
0/2	10	Erro­neous Exits
	45	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
1	0	0	TTF R 50MABO + PB	2	Scratched	No fol­low-through on BO	-	-
2	0	0	TTF R AD 200MACAS	2	SO	Stop out just below TTF R LKC	-	-
3	1	0	TTF R AD LKC BD	2	Scratched	real­ized I went long instead of short and scratched	Clicked wrong button	My CS was down after eat­ing din­ner prob­a­bly too much carbs because I feel sud­den­ly very tired — no more big meals dur­ing or before the ses­sion — light meals only
4	0	0	TTF D TC @ 1.0 SD	5	Scratched	crossed 1.0 SD	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 80%
    • Trad­ed below what I indicated
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • I did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: DId well here
  • CS: Had a moment of sud­den tired­ness that caused me to get out of flow
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • This was anoth­er SPD for me so took a lot of notes today for my PB
• Positive(s)
  • Found anoth­er SPD for my PB
  • When I messed up I stayed calm and reassessed if my entry would be good at this point and I decid­ed against it.
• Negative(s)
  • Messed up by going long instead of short when try­ing to fol­low my 2nd narrative

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.