21082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

21 Aug 21082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

21082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • No rice or noo­dles at night
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Slept enough. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF UKC area after we bounced off VWAP above 50
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 56.490
    • PVAH 56.273
    • PPOC 56.014
    • PVAL 55.787
    • Prev. Low 55.072
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • We just had a big rejec­tion of 55 lev­el again and might have loaded up for a BO, that we are above 1.0 SD shows that there is some strength behind the direction
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF UT above 50 how­ev­er signs of lack of liq­uid­i­ty if mem­o­ry serves me cor­rect this could be the sit­u­a­tion around a big move

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF 50MACAS
  • Entry around 56.20
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.80, 57.50
• Hypo 2 Short
  • PB to HTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 56.15
  • Tar­gets 56, 55.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF UKC CAR
  • Entry around 56.40
  • Tar­gets 56.10, 55.80 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing?
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Not too impres­sive bounce of VWAP so pos­si­ble BD from this level
    • TTF
      • TTF R in effect look­ing for signs to con­firm a BD which would be test­ing TTF200
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Drop to HTF50MACAS
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • PA mov­ing between 2.0 SD above 50
    • TTF
      • TTF R with swings that get big­ger with price very slow at times and then very fast prob­a­bly HFTs caus­ing con­fu­sion at this HHTF200 level
    • Bias
      • Unclear
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Move from 50 to UKC as part of HHTF200MABO attempt
    • TTF
      • TTF UKC BO with PA above 1.0 SD
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Long
          • TTF U TC
        • Short
          • TTF R Overbought
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Looks like a UKC BO but it could be a fake
    • TTF
      • TTF broke 1.0 SD but might find sup­port at VWAP for U TC
    • Bias
      • Long until we break TTF VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • U TC VWAP
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • PA above 1.0 SD still look­ing bullish
    • TTF
      • TTF bounced off VWAP
    • Bias
      • Long until we break TTF VWAP
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF 50MACAS
  • Entry around 56.20
  • Tar­gets 56.50, 56.80, 57.50
• Hypo 2 Short
  • PB to HTF50MACAS
  • Entry around 56.15
  • Tar­gets 56, 55.90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF UKC CAR
  • Entry around 56.40
  • Tar­gets 56.10, 55.80 

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/21/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	94
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	7	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	47	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
4/4	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
4/4	10	Setups tak­en
0/4	10	Erro­neous Entries
1/4	7	Erro­neous Exits
	47	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Did well here
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • I did OK here. There was one trade I could have I scratched because of some­thing that was hap­pen­ing on my TTF and I did not let mar­ket nar­ra­tive lead. Logged this. 
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • Today I saw the oppor­tu­ni­ty to take some scalps and I did. This hap­pens very rarely and I am hap­py I took the opportunity
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
1	1	0	1	HTF50MA CAS	10	Scratched	Did­n’t move beyond VWAP
2	2	0	0	HTF VWAP CAR	10	SO	Stopped out
2	3	0	0	HTF Over­bought	10	SO	Stopped out
3	4	0	0	HTF UKC BO attempt	10	Scalp	Quick scalp
3	5	0	0	HTF UKC BO attempt	10	Scratched	Scratched
3	6	0	0	HTF UKC BO attempt	10	Scalp	Quick scalp
4	7	0	0	HTF Over­bought @ 2.0 SD	10	Scalp	Quick scalp
4	8				10	Scratched	Scratched
4	9				10	Scalp	Quick scalp

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 100%
    • DId well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I can be flex­i­ble in my approach by look­ing at the pace and struc­ture of the mar­ket I can time few quick scalps how­ev­er I feel more com­fort­able when these are in the direc­tion of my mar­ket nar­ra­tive. When that became unclear I stopped. 
• Positive(s)
  • DId well to take a chance on scalps. I’ve done this before and when mar­ket slows down and fol­lows my tech­ni­cal lev­els to a tee I have no prob­lems  tak­ing some quick scalps. 
  • Did well to not let the 2 stopped out trades get to me and focused on mar­ket narrative

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.