21062019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

21 Jun 21062019 Friday — Trade Plan & Journal

21062019 Fri­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Only eat two meals a day
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)?
  • I feel good although a lit­tle tired
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1 = don’t trade 2/3 =half posi­tion siz­ing 4/5 = full position
  • 3 = trad­ing half my nor­mal size. Wan­na trade big­ger? Get some good fuck­ing rest!

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release     Jun 18, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑0.812M
  • Pre­vi­ous        4.850M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release    Jun 19, 2019
  • Actu­al            ‑3.106M
  • Fore­cast        ‑1.077M
  • Pre­vi­ous        2.206M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    57.339
      • PVAH    56.725
      • PPOC    54.669
      • PVAL    54.420
      • Low    54.308
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PVAH area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t breach 1.0 SD and stayed well above indi­cat­ing high momen­tum behind the move although we are now at a HHTF tech lev­el pro­vid­ing resis­tance (for now)
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF UT might be los­ing momen­tum and get ready for a short term reversal

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MABD
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Lots of A/D lat­er­al moves fol­lowed by a drop to TTF200MA which but then liq­uid­i­ty seems to dry up with spread wide as 55

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 56.90
  • Tar­gets 56.60, 56.45
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF D TT
  • Entry around 56.60
  • Tar­gets 57.05, 57.25, 57.50
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 57.10
  • Tar­gets 56.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Pos­si­ble HHTF200MABO with TTF200MABO show­ing strength in move up, HTFUKC is not show­ing any sign of resis­tance yet
    • Drop down to TTF200MA pos­si­ble CAS or BD.
  • 16:35
    • TTFUKC still hold­ing up but seems like nei­ther bulls or bears are heav­i­ly fight­ing here
  • 17:05
    • Mar­ket hasn’t made a move yet but we are still above TTF200MA 
    • Rever­sal can­dle just above it
    • Spreads are still wide at 49
  • 17:35
    • PA dead above TTF200MA still
  • 18:05
    • Bounce off LTFLKC just below LTF200MA then PB to 200MA which coin­cides with bounce off TTF200MA after touch­ing 50MA briefly, poten­tial 50MA cross­ing 200MA 
  • 18:35
    • Move over HTF/TTF UKC could this be a HHTFBO?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • TTF200MABD
  • Entry around 56.90
  • Tar­gets 56.60, 56.45
• Hypo 2 Long
  • TTF D TT
  • Entry around 56.60
  • Tar­gets 57.05, 57.25, 57.50
• Hypo 3 Short
  • TTF50MACAR
  • Entry around 57.10
  • Tar­gets 56.80

	Date:	6/21/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	88
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS	100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Hypos	3/3	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Trad­ing the process	2/3	6	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	2/3	3	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/3	10	Erro­neous Exits
	49	Total		39

• Week­ly Goal
  • Size up and have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • Have not had the oppor­tu­ni­ty to take A/A+ setups for a bit now. Did well to stay patient and not try to go look for trades to take. 
    • Learn­ing and build­ing a track record on exper­i­men­tal trades.
• Review

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
24.2	1	1	0	(test) HHTF200MABO	1	Hit tar­get	cov­ered at pre­vi­ous swing high	should have wait­ed for a PB to big­ger tech lev­el before enter­ing like my 2nd position	replay + write up in PB — this week­end I will cre­ate a bet­ter for­mat for track­ing these
4	2	0	0	(test) HHTF200MABO	1	scratched	this was the sec­ond entry at PB after price dropped when I took the first posi­tion, when we hit my entry lev­el and I saw weak­ness I scratched it.	-	-

• On the 2nd trade I should have scratched the first posi­tion but in my mind I was think­ing that I was tak­ing off risk after I had added that one to the move. Then a long time noth­ing hap­pened and I took the 2nd one off.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 90%
    • Didn’t quite go low as much as I thought before revers­ing to con­tin­ue up
  • Real-time analy­sis
    • I did fair­ly well here keep­ing mar­ket con­text from HTF and HHTF in mind.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Good
  • E: Good
  • CS: Good
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • When we near a HHTF POI PA on the low­er time frames behaves dif­fer­ent­ly, spreads are wider
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Focussing on probability
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Don’t just look at the big­ger pic­ture when it comes to your process, the small­er tasks are an inte­gral part of how you mea­sure your progress through bet­ter effi­cien­cy and clar­i­ty in your process. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

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Trade Jour­nal on day trad­ing the WTI crude oil market

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