20220513 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

• MN
  • MN Bear Engulf reject­ing MN QHi
  • Price made a LL and is trad­ing below body and range
  • Price run­ning into con­ges­tion from MN demand
• W1
  • W1 closed down as a Bear­ish Hammer
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4
  • Price trad­ing below body and range
  • Arrival at W1 QLo has seen some reac­tion but price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in demand and QLo

Nar­ra­tive

• D1
  • D1 closed low­er with­in D1 QLo giv­ing D1-C‑S 1838.766 Low in Dist. Curve
  • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.56
  • Price trad­ing with­in wide W1/D1 QLo
• H4
  • H4 Bull Engulf with­in W1/D1QLo, with­in demand, fol­lowed by a pos­si­ble base
• Trend
  • Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping val­ues in DT, price trad­ing below value
• LN Open
  • 1.48xASR Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Huge Imbal­ance
  • Asia extend­ed and trad­ed higher
  • 0.42xASR IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

• Pos­si­ble Fri­day profit-taking

Hypos

• Hypo 1
  • Long
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auction
• Hypo 2
  • Short
  • Late-Sus­tained Auction
• Hypo 3
  • Short
  • Return to Val­ue, pos­si­bly at LTF sup­ply, Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Auc­tion Fade
• Hypo 4
  • Long
  • Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty

• 3

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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