20220513 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2022 Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

• MN
  • MN DBD
  • Price made a LL and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in body
• W1
  • Pos­si­ble W1 Phase 4
  • Price react­ing from W1 QLo and price is trad­ing with­in body

Nar­ra­tive

• D1
  • Test of new D1 demand and close high­er pos­si­bly form­ing a base
  • D1 QHi reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
  • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.09
• H4
  • H4 Sup­ply tak­en out
  • H4 QLo reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
• Trend
  • Trend is Up 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4 over­lap­ping val­ue brack­et­ing range, price trad­ing above value
• LN Open
  • NY wider than LN still
  • 1.36xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Huge Imbal­ance
  • 0.52xASR IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

• Pos­si­ble Fri­day profit-taking

Hypos

• Hypo 1
  • Short
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auction
• Hypo 2
  • Long
  • Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion, risky open sen­ti­ment as well as LTF supply
• Hypo 3
  • Long
  • Return to Val­ue, Rever­sal, Auc­tion Fade
• Hypo 4
  • Short
  • Rever­sal, ADR/ASR Exhaus­tion, Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty

• 3

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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