20220329 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2022 Week 13 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

• MN
  • Price made a LL but is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last month’s body
  • MN QHi reject­ed but price start­ed reject­ing off MN QHi
• W1
  • W1 Base after a Three Inside Up
  • W1 QLo rejected
  • Price made a HH

Nar­ra­tive

• D1
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
  • Price trad­ed and closed high­er tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply (still trad­ing in old­er D1 Supply
  • D1 QLo reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
  • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.16
• H4
  • H4 Inside Bar at D1 Sup­ply with­out con­tin­u­a­tion, instead a slow crawl higher
  • Price took out H4 QHi and closed higher
• Trend
  • Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous although still with­in over­all range (at the top)
• LN Open
  • 0.23xASR Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Mod­er­ate Imbalance
  • 0.48xASR Nor­mal IBR, IB formed a Bear Engulf
  • Asia extend­ed and trad­ed higher

Addi­tion­al Notes

• N.A.

Hypos

• Hypo 1
  • Short
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 2
  • Long
  • Return to Val­ue, VAH Rever­sal, risky with bear engulf right above, per­haps best for price to clear that first
  • Pos­si­ble Failed Auction
• Hypo 3
  • Short
  • Auc­tion Fade
• Hypo 4
  • Long
  • Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty

• 3

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit tired, late in the month. I’m in the prof­it for the month so won’t take any unnec­es­sary risks.

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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