20220316 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2022 Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

• MN
  • Price trad­ing below last month’s range and start­ed react­ing off MN QLo and MN Demand
• W1
  • W1 react­ed off W1 QLo and W1 demand clos­ing as a Bull­ish Inside Bar (week­end over­lap trad­ing added)
  • Price trad­ing above last week’s body but still with­in range

Nar­ra­tive

• D1
  • D1 closed high­er as a Hammer
  • D1 QLo reject­ed, price trad­ing mid swing
  • Price returned to D1 Sup­ply Base level
• H4
  • H4 Bull Engulf at H4 VWAP in UT giv­ing H4-C‑D 13837.25 (at VAH)
  • Price took out H4 sup­ply (at round number)
• Trend
  • Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous
• LN Open
  • 0.85xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Large Imbal­ance
  • Open at D1 Supply
  • 0.25xASR Tight IBR
  • Asia formed a Neu­tral Day

Hypos

• Hypo 1
  • Short
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auction
• Hypo 2
  • Long
  • Return to Val­ue, pos­si­ble LTF demand, pos­si­ble rever­sal or Auc­tion Fade
• Hypo 3
  • Short
  • Rever­sal, pos­si­bly at ADR exhaustion

Clar­i­ty

• 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Fed Rate Deci­sion tomor­row. Might not see much happening.

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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