20220120 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 3 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 QHi rejected
• Last week closed as a W1 Bull­ish Inside Bar and price is trad­ing above its body but still with­in range
  • Price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last week’s body
  • Pos­si­bly devel­op­ing W1 Three Out­side Up
  • Price made a new HH and is test­ing W1 sup­ply not far below below W1 QHi and MN C‑Sup

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • 1.67xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Huge Imbal­ance
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues with yesterday’s being wider
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Big D1 Bull Engulf tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply giv­ing D1 C‑Dem
  • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.85, pos­si­ble momen­tum although with loca­tion there could be a pullback
  • Price trad­ing just below D1 QHi, QLo rejected
  • Trend change: MIXED Trend
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion below D1/H4 QHi (although no test of QHi (yet)
  • Asia extend­ed higher
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Short
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auction
  • If price can take out LTF demand and extend downwards
• Hypo 2
  • Long
  • Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entry
  • Huge Imbal­ance, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion, price would need to take out Asia high and close above
  • Risky due to H4/D1 QHi right above
• Hypo 3
  • Short
  • Auc­tion Fade, pos­si­ble reversal
• Hypo 4
  • Short
  • Failed Auc­tion

Addi­tion­al Notes

• N.A.

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay but just had some neg­a­tive news

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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