20220113 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2022 Week 2 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last month’s body and made a HH now trad­ing with­in range
• Last week closed as an invert­ed ham­mer cur­rent­ly trad­ing above its body but still with­in range although price reached for W1-C‑D 15685.89 and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing below W1 sup­ply and start­ed reacting

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • 0.03xASR Below Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, although ambigu­ous open could be con­sid­ered pos­si­ble respon­sive activity
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
• Nar­ra­tive
  • D1 closed neu­tral after a bull engulf clos­ing with­in D1 QHi
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down (after H4 QHi rejec­tion) giv­ing H4-C‑S 16004.13 (with­in val­ue) with con­tin­u­a­tion low­er after reac­tion off new­ly formed H4 supply
  • New D1 demand just below as well as H4-C‑D 15940.48
  • Trend is UP 3/3
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Long
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, although risky due to new­ly formed H4 sup­ply with­in value
  • Price would need to con­fi­dent­ly take out LTF sup­ply and clear Asia high
  • Pos­si­ble sus­tained auc­tion continuation
• Hypo 2
  • Short
  • Return to Val­ue, VAL rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 3
  • Long
  • Failed Auc­tion
• Hypo 4
  • Long
  • Auc­tion Fade

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 16102.51
• H4-C‑S 16004.13

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15940.48
• D1-C‑D 15907.25
• W1-C‑D 15685.89

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Didn’t sleep well, will need to be care­ful. Only trade after C TPO (if any)

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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