20211207 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑Day brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 26449
  • ASR: 19753
    • 4938
  • ASR Short: 16697
    • 4174
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15421.20
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15146.80

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Demand seems to be react­ing as price is trad­ing above last week’s body but still with­in range. Trad­ing above W1 demand.

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.1xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • D1 Three Inside Up giv­ing D1-C‑D 15245.66 (with­in val­ue), D1 Sup­ply still intact although some sup­ply got tak­en out.
  • Price made a H4 RBR giv­ing H4-C‑D 15295.35 and price trad­ing with­in H4 QHi (above H4 50MA in DT)
  • Large Imbal­ance at the open
  • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.03
  • Asia climbed high­er tak­ing out D1 supply
  • 0.5xASR to ADR Exhaus­tion High
  • Price trad­ing into D1 VWAP in DT
  • Mixed Trend
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion short
• Hypo 2
  • ADR exhaus­tion rever­sal, pos­si­ble failed auc­tion short
• Hypo 3
  • Return to Val­ue, rever­sal at LTF demand or val­ue edge
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long, pos­si­ble strength from with­in IBR

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑S 15398.00
• H4-C‑D 15295.35

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing Okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 15 trades by the end of the month, can take 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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