20211126 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 47 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Pos­si­ble Devel­op­ing MN Three Inside UP although price trad­ing with­in MN Supply
• Last week closed as an Inside Bar below W1 QHi and price is trad­ing below its body and range: pos­si­bly devel­op­ing a W1 Three Out­side Down
• Price returned to W1 Demand Base Lev­el and price is reacting

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑day over­lap­ping brack­et­ing range with price trad­ing above value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23511
  • ASR: 15974
    • 399
  • ASR Short: 10170
    • 254
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1795.060
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1787.560

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • ABove Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.92xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance
  • Open at H4 supply
  • Asia extend­ed a sus­tained auc­tion up
  • Gap up on the start of the day
  • ADR exhaus­tion 45 pips above IB
  • Price returned to W1 base demand lev­el but price start­ed react­ing although devel­op­ing a pos­si­ble W1 Three Out­side Down
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, val­ue edge rever­sal, pos­si­bly at LTF demand above VAH
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Long

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1808.244

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1794.045 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1786.996

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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