20211123 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 47 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Pos­si­ble Devel­op­ing MN Three Inside UP although price trad­ing with­in MN Supply
• Last week closed as an Inside Bar below W1 QHi and price is trad­ing below its body and range: pos­si­bly devel­op­ing a W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Out­side Down with con­tin­u­a­tion down tra­vers­ing 1.86xADR. Price reject­ed D1/W1 QHi with no arrival at QLo (yet)
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 200MA
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24884
  • ASR: 17136
    • 428
  • ASR Short: 9512
    • 238
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.78xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Huge Imbal­ance. Asia formed a Neu­tral Day after price ini­tial­ly extend­ed to the upside first. Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.68. Pos­si­bil­i­ty for some retrace­ment. Price trad­ing at yesterday’s low. If price can hold below there might be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the down move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 if there is no mean rever­sion in the first 2 hours
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, although D1 QLo and demand not far off
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to hypo 3
• Hypo 5
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.859
• D1-C‑S 1862.308

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1794.045

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram