20211117 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 46 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body and after mak­ing a HH price is trad­ing below W1 QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Neu­tral Bear Engulf with fol­low-through leav­ing a longer sell­ing wick and clos­ing on its low and below D1/W1 QHi
  • H4 Bear Engulf with fol­low-through clos­ing with­in H4-C‑D 1856.414. Fol­lowed by H4 Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1851.556.
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous with price is trad­ing below yesterday’s
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 24805
  • ASR: 17135
    • 428
  • ASR Short: 7884
    • 197
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1877.030
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1849.590

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.82xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance although not quite 0.9+. D1 Closed below D1/W1 QHi. H4 Bull Engulf and price returned to D1 QHi. D1 C‑sup right above IBR. Asia extend­ed to the upside. Prev. Day Exceed­ed by 1.11 so might see some retrace­ment up. Trend is still up 3/3 as well.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long, mean reveri­son (tricky with new­ly formed D1 C‑sup right there)
• Hypo 2
  • Rever­sal Short (near D1 C‑sup)
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short
• Hypo 4
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, vari­a­tion to hypo 1 in case mean rever­sion doesn’t hap­pen in the first two hours

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.859
• D1-C‑S 1862.238

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1856.414
• H4-C‑D 1851.556

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram