20211103 Trade Review DAX

Play: Return to Val­ue Reversal

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

• Result
  • -1R
• Prod­uct
  • DAX
• Open Sen­ti­ment
  • 0.39xASR Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbalance
• IBR
  • 0.30xASR
• Hypo
  • 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue Edge rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Long
• Attempt­ed Setup
  • Rever­sal
• Entry Tech­nique
  • M30 Bull Engulf on the close of D TPO (2nd DTTZ)
• SL place­ment
  • 25 pips due to tighter IBR and SL was placed well below IB low and PA formation
  • ASR/4 was 29, ASR short 27, 25 was with­in mar­gin of error 
• TPO peri­od for Entry
  • E TPO
• Trade Dura­tion
  • 5h30m
• Long/Short
  • Long
• Lead­ing Narrative
  • Pre­vi­ous day clos­ing near it’s high
  • Pre­vi­ous D1 Sup­ply got tak­en out
  • Open sen­ti­ment: above val­ue, with­in range, mod­er­ate imbalance
  • Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment over­rul­ing D1 Sup­ply (high­er like­li­hood for it to get tak­en out)
  • WARNING CONJECTURE (just log­ging the sit­u­a­tion for my play­book): Pos­si­ble move ahead of rate deci­sion as I ini­tial­ly thought this move to take out Larg­er time­frame sup­ply could hap­pen tomor­row (Thurs­day) or even on Friday. 

Actu­al Development

Price moved high­er but did not extend IBR until H TPO. H then closed right at IB high before revers­ing Fail­ing the Auc­tion. PRice then pro­ceed­ed to extend slight­ly to the down­side form­ing a Neu­tral Day. 

When NY opened price took out my SL by 3, 4 pips before shoot­ing high­er and even­tu­al­ly reach­ing over 4R.

Good points

• Tak­ing a trade when uncom­fort­able with after­math of get­ting my 2nd shot
• Tak­ing a trade in the first week of the month. I usu­al­ly don’t like that as non-farm and rate deci­sion make price action ‘weird’. 
• I took the trade even though trad­ing right below D1 Supply, 
• Rec­og­niz­ing Prev. Day had exceed­ed ADR and with that a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a pull­back (which did indeed come lat­er). I decid­ed for a retrace­ment of prev. Day to hap­pen in a strong uptrend price would need to accept val­ue which I deemed less like­ly espe­cial­ly in equities. 
• Going to bed and let the trade do its thing

Bad Points

• SL could’ve been slight­ly wider as price took it out and reversed almost instant­ly after
• Entry was tak­en right into M30 con­ges­tion and was­n’t the strongest play. Bet­ter would have been if the con­ges­tion had been cleared before look­ing for an entry. 

Next Day Analysis

• Tar­get hit?
  • No, ‑1R
• Time-based Exit?
  • 0.7R
• Over­lap Noise?
  • 0.1R
• End of Day?
  • -1R
• High­est R multiple?
  • 1R

TAGS: Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, Trend is UP 3/3, Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, Move Ahead of Rate Decision, 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day: ‌

20211103 Pre­mar­ket Prep DAX

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