20211103 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 44 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing in last month’s body
• Price trad­ing below last week’s body but still with­in range
• Price trad­ing mid W1 swing com­ing from QLo rejection

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 rejec­tion of D1 QHi. No con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar.
  • Price trad­ing at H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous but trad­ing with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19327
  • ASR: 12751
    • 319
  • ASR Short: 6632
    • 166 (too tight)
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1796.290
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1786.330

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.71xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Uptrend 2/3. Price trad­ing at H4 QLo and with­in D1 demand (coin­cid­ing with D1 VWAP) at old H4-C‑D 1781.836. D1 sup­ply with­in value.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down (pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to yesterday’s Inside bar)

Addi­tion­al notes

• Tomor­row Fed Inter­est Rate Deci­sion, non-farm on Friday

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1813.621
• W1-C‑S 1807.771
• D1-C‑S 1793.804

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1781.836 OLD
• D1-C‑D 1764.198

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram