20211103 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 44 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last month’s body and range
• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range trad­ing with­in W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day took out D1 Sup­ply although still a lit­tle to go to take out MN/W1 Supply
  • Yes­ter­day exceed­ed ADR by 1.5
  • H4 phase 2 with some slow­down at D1 supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Strong Uptrend 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 12744
  • ASR: 11694
    • 2924
  • ASR Short: 10832
    • 2708
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15962.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15720.20

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.34xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open sen­ti­ment as well as strong uptrend sug­gests a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion high­er. Although open right at D1-C‑S 15965.47 and yesterday’s price tra­versed 1.5xADR so there could be a pull­back first. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue Edge rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
• Hypo 3
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• Tomor­row Fed Inter­est Rate Deci­sion, non-farm on Friday

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15965.47
• W1-C‑S 15823.56

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15697.65
• W1-C‑D 15590.83

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing Okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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