20211028 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 43 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Last week closed as a pos­si­ble Base at a pre­vi­ous W1 Sup­ply Base lev­el but with near­by MN C‑sup
• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and made a HH
• Price almost test­ed orig­i­nat­ing lev­el W1-C‑S 15823.56

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside Bar cre­at­ed (not clos­ing below 50% mark) with­in D1 Sup­ply at D1 UKC
  • Price trad­ing with­in D1 QHi
  • H4 pulling back to H4 VWAP in UT after near­ly tak­ing out D1/W1 supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3 (strong)
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed at the low of the pre­vi­ous still overlapping
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 12064
  • ASR: 10754
    • 2700
  • ASR Short: 9053
    • 2263 (2500 min. preferably)
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15761.70
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15667.70

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.27xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. H4 react­ing with a con­tin­ued DBD at D1 Sup­ply hit­ting a H4 base demand lev­el. Although there is a strong uptrend there may be a con­tin­u­a­tion down. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue Edge Rever­sal short, Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Accep­tance (val­ue quite tight), pos­si­ble sus­tained auc­tion up
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15823.56
• D1-C‑S 15695.85
• MN-C‑S 15561.74

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15499.30
• W1-C‑D 15290.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing Okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram