20211021 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 42 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Some reac­tion off MN C‑sup
• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s Bull Engulf that closed at a W1 Sup­ply base level

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside bar clos­ing with a longer sell­ing wick react­ing off D1 QHi
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: MIXED Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑day flim­sy bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14449
  • ASR: 11455
    • 2864
  • ASR Short: 9684
    • 2421
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15572
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15462.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.55xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. IBR tra­versed 1.02xASR after pre­mar­ket took out D1/H4 demand and reversed then accept­ed val­ue. How­ev­er, there is H4 sup­ply with­in val­ue plus with the wide IBR and price trad­ing at D1/H4 QHi there could be more sell­ers com­ing in. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Accep­tance to a pos­si­ble sus­tained auction
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
• Hypo 4
  • Strength From With­in IBR, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15588.27
• MN-C‑S 15561.74

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15290.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Deal­ing with some per­son­al stuff. Might be distracted. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Process
  • Keep trade review com­ments short
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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