20211020 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 42 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body but with­in long sell­ing wick’s range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Weak D1 Bull Engulf with long sell­ing wick giv­ing D1-C‑D 1768.495
  • H4 Bull Engulf above pre­vi­ous demand com­ing from H4 QLo rejection 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: MIXED Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous with price cur­renl­ty trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 22379
  • ASR: 15140
    • 379
  • ASR Short: 7825 (too tight)
    • 196
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1785.030
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1762.750

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.07xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate bal­ance. IBR very tight at 0.16xASR. Prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge could see an accep­tance of val­ue although not a great oppor­tu­ni­ty due to larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment as well as H4 sup­ply with­in a some­what tight val­ue. In pre­mar­ket price has trad­ed and closed high­er. Price is trad­ing mid H4 swing in a mixed trend mar­ket. Will need to rely on price action and pro­file for opps. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Failed Auc­tion Short (IBR too tight), Val­ue Edge Reversal
• Hypo 2
  •  Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2 
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, Vari­a­tion to Hypo 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1778.315

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1770.599
• D1-C‑D 1762.340

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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