20211014 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 41 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and range mak­ing a HH

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion tra­vers­ing higher 
  • H4 Phase 2 clos­ing with­in H4 QHi and formed a Three Inside Down (not clos­ing below H4 QHi)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend changed to MIXED
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23262
  • ASR: 14551
    • 364
  • ASR Short: 7790
    • 195 (25 min)
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1796.070
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1757.870

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.33xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Huge Imbal­ance. Pos­si­ble strength behind the move although with open­ing at D1 sup­ply as well as D1 200MA and the round num­ber of 1800 above best to be cau­tious. H4 con­sol­i­da­tion with Bull Engulf. IBR formed a Bull Engulf and C extend­ed and closed above IB. Trend changed to mixed after being down.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Short (IBR too tight), Rever­sal might war­rant a fur­ther move down. 
• Hypo 2
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up (risky)
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1768.539
• D1-C‑S 1794.250

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1753.926
• MN-C‑D 1739.674

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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