20211005 Premarket Prep DAX

05 Oct 20211005 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 40 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body, with­in range. No LL has been made (yet) although price came close.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed deep­er with­in D1 QLO and slight­ly with­in D1 demand
  • Price react­ed off of Old H4 demand and formed a Ham­mer, pos­si­ble base. 
  • H4 VWAP in DT TC, 2x H4 Bear Engulfs at H4 VWAP
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues, slow­down in price
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20874
  • ASR: 15611
    • 3900
    • 3475
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15294.60
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15013.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.23xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. LL made and trad­ing below yesterday’s body. Open sen­ti­ment favors shorts although LL was made dur­ing Asia. Close prox­im­i­ty to Val­ue edge could see an accep­tance of value. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue edge rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion short
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 3
  •  Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, Late-sus­tained auc­tion entry pre­ferred due to trad­ing direct­ly into demand.
• Hypo 4
  • Failed Auc­tion Long

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15239.72

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15125.15
• H4-C‑D 15025.84 (old)

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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