20211004 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 40 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body but still with­in range
• Price trad­ing below last month’s body and made a slight LL

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Slight move high­er from D1 QLo
  • H4 Bear Engulf (giv­ing H4-C‑S 15239.72) at H4 VWAP in DT (mid swing after H4 QLo rejec­tion) price return­ing to H4 QLo / D1-C‑D 15125.15 hit­ting a H4 base demand lev­el as well
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide val­ue formed below 3‑day brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21861
  • ASR: 16809
    • 4200
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15295.50
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 14980.80

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Open With­in Value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Price fol­lowed-through in pre­mar­ket trad­ing down into Demand, H4 QLo. IB exhaust­ed ADR. Pos­si­bil­i­ty for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day. Due to the exten­sion up I am more inclined for a pos­si­ble Devel­op­ing H4 Base in line with the move as well as trend being down. Shorts are more favored. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Rever­sal, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, Risky due to open sen­ti­ment, H4 QLo, demand, Asia trad­ed lower
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 3
  • Pos­si­ble 3–1 Day (due to open sen­ti­ment), Neu­tral Day extend­ing longer to the oppo­site side, pos­si­bil­i­ty for an auc­tion fade long.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15239.72

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15125.15
• H4-C‑D 15025.84 (old)

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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