20210928 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 39 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and has made a HH

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 test­ed D1-C‑S 15696.82 and closed as a Grave­stone Doji
  • H4 Bear Engulf with no con­tin­u­a­tion, instead some con­sol­i­da­tion above MN/W1 demand
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19593
  • ASR: 14056
    • 3500
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15719.20
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15550.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.37xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. IBR tra­versed 0.9xASR indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble respon­sive activ­i­ty. Price returned to H4-C‑D 15455.51 BASE lev­el which could sig­nal a con­tin­u­a­tion. Trend is Down 2/3. Pre­mar­ket closed as a H4 Bear Engulf at H4 QHi.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Strength from with­in IBR
• Hypo 3
  • Weak­ness from With­in IBR, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 or 2 in line with a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 Bear Engulf
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, risky due to wide IBR, late-sus­tained auc­tion preferred

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15696.82

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15455.51 Base
• W1-C‑D 15394.53

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Might be com­ing down with some­thing. Will take it easy. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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