20210927 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 39 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and has made a HH above its range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ing with­in the D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar and extend­ed higher
  • H4 show­ing some momen­tum cur­rent­ly trad­ing at D1 QHi with­in H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous with price cur­renl­ty trad­ing above value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20311
  • ASR: 13948
    • 3487
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15706.47
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low  15493.08

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.11xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Price is trad­ing at D1 sup­ply and D1 QHi with a large imbal­ance at the open there could be a mean rever­sion first before extend­ing high­er. Trend is DOWN 2/3. Although H4 has shown strength in its rally. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion long, IBR not that wide
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15696.82

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15535.72
• D1-C‑D 15125.15

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Not the sharpest. Tak­ing it easy today. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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